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China Mengniu Dairy (HKG:2319) Shareholders Are Still up 53% Over 5 Years Despite Pulling Back 4.6% in the Past Week
China Mengniu Dairy (HKG:2319) Shareholders Are Still up 53% Over 5 Years Despite Pulling Back 4.6% in the Past Week
While China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 18% in the last quarter. On the bright side the returns have been quite good over the last half decade. After all, the share price is up a market-beating 47% in that time. While the long term returns are impressive, we do have some sympathy for those who bought more recently, given the 36% drop, in the last year.
In light of the stock dropping 4.6% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
Check out our latest analysis for China Mengniu Dairy
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years of share price growth, China Mengniu Dairy moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. Indeed, the China Mengniu Dairy share price has gained 9.5% in three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 17% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 3.1% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. So you might conclude the market is a little more cautious about the stock, these days.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
SEHK:2319 Earnings Per Share Growth September 27th 2022We know that China Mengniu Dairy has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for China Mengniu Dairy the TSR over the last 5 years was 53%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that China Mengniu Dairy shareholders are down 35% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 22%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 9%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with China Mengniu Dairy , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
而當蒙牛乳業股份有限公司(HKG:2319)股東可能普遍滿意,該股最近表現不是特別好,股價在上個季度下跌了18%。從好的方面來看,過去五年的回報相當不錯。畢竟,在這段時間裏,該公司股價上漲了47%,漲幅超過了市場。雖然長期回報令人印象深刻,但考慮到去年下跌了36%,我們確實對最近買入的人表示了一些同情。
鑑於該公司股價在過去一週下跌了4.6%,我們希望調查更長期的情況,看看基本面因素是否是該公司五年來正回報的驅動因素。
看看我們對蒙牛乳業的最新分析
用巴菲特的話説,“船隻將在世界各地航行,但平坦的地球協會將蓬勃發展。市場上的價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大的差異……”考察市場情緒如何隨時間變化的一種方法是觀察一家公司的股價和每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。
在股價增長的五年裏,蒙牛乳業從虧損轉為盈利。這通常會被認為是積極的,所以我們預計股價會上漲。由於該公司五年前沒有盈利,而不是三年前,過去三年的回報也值得一看。事實上,蒙牛乳業的股價在三年內上漲了9.5%。與此同時,每股收益每年增長17%。這一每股收益增長高於同期股價3.1%的年均增幅。因此,你可能會得出結論,這些天市場對該股的態度稍微謹慎了一些。
下圖顯示了EPS是如何隨着時間的推移進行跟蹤的(如果您點擊該圖像,您可以看到更多詳細信息)。
聯交所:2022年9月27日每股盈利增長2319我們知道蒙牛乳業最近提高了利潤,但它會增長收入嗎?你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師收入預測的報告。
那股息呢?
在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。TSR是一種回報計算,計入了現金股息的價值(假設收到的任何股息都進行了再投資),以及任何貼現融資和剝離的計算價值。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來説,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。我們注意到,蒙牛乳業在過去5年的總回報率為53%,好於上文提到的股價回報率。該公司支付的股息因此提振了總計股東回報。
不同的視角
我們遺憾地報告,蒙牛乳業的股東今年以來下跌了35%(即使包括股息)。不幸的是,這比大盤22%的跌幅還要糟糕。然而,這可能只是因為股價受到了更廣泛的市場緊張情緒的影響。也許有必要關注基本面,以防出現良機。長期投資者不會如此沮喪,因為他們在五年內每年會獲得9%的收益。最近的拋售可能是一個機會,因此可能值得查看基本面數據,以尋找長期增長趨勢的跡象。雖然值得考慮市場狀況對股價可能產生的不同影響,但還有其他更重要的因素。例如,考慮一下無處不在的投資風險幽靈。我們已經確定了1個警告信號與蒙牛乳業的合作,瞭解他們應該是你投資過程的一部分。
如果你更願意看看另一家公司--一家財務狀況可能更好的公司--那麼不要錯過這一點免費已證明自己能夠實現盈利增長的公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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