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Here's Why We're A Bit Worried About Allakos' (NASDAQ:ALLK) Cash Burn Situation
Here's Why We're A Bit Worried About Allakos' (NASDAQ:ALLK) Cash Burn Situation
Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.
So, the natural question for Allakos (NASDAQ:ALLK) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. For the purposes of this article, cash burn is the annual rate at which an unprofitable company spends cash to fund its growth; its negative free cash flow. We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.
View our latest analysis for Allakos
Does Allakos Have A Long Cash Runway?
A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. As at June 2022, Allakos had cash of US$212m and no debt. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$350m. That means it had a cash runway of around 7 months as of June 2022. That's quite a short cash runway, indicating the company must either reduce its annual cash burn or replenish its cash. We should note, however, that if we extrapolate recent trends in its cash burn, then its cash runway would get a lot longer. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.
NasdaqGS:ALLK Debt to Equity History September 20th 2022How Is Allakos' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Allakos didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. In fact, it ramped its spending strongly over the last year, increasing cash burn by 101%. It's fair to say that sort of rate of increase cannot be maintained for very long, without putting pressure on the balance sheet. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
How Easily Can Allakos Raise Cash?
Given its cash burn trajectory, Allakos shareholders should already be thinking about how easy it might be for it to raise further cash in the future. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.
Allakos' cash burn of US$350m is about 71% of its US$495m market capitalisation. Given how large that cash burn is, relative to the market value of the entire company, we'd consider it to be a high risk stock, with the real possibility of extreme dilution.
How Risky Is Allakos' Cash Burn Situation?
As you can probably tell by now, we're rather concerned about Allakos' cash burn. Take, for example, its cash burn relative to its market cap, which suggests the company may have difficulty funding itself, in the future. While not as bad as its cash burn relative to its market cap, its cash runway is also a concern, and considering everything mentioned above, we're struggling to find much to be optimistic about. The measures we've considered in this article lead us to believe its cash burn is actually quite concerning, and its weak cash position seems likely to cost shareholders one way or another. On another note, Allakos has 5 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
If you would prefer to check out another company with better fundamentals, then do not miss this free list of interesting companies, that have HIGH return on equity and low debt or this list of stocks which are all forecast to grow.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
僅僅因為一家企業沒有賺到錢,並不意味着股票會下跌。例如,雖然軟件即服務業務Salesforce.com在經常性收入增長的同時多年來一直虧損,但如果你從2005年開始持有股票,你確實會做得非常好。話雖如此,沒有盈利的公司是有風險的,因為它們可能會燒掉所有的現金,陷入困境。
所以,自然的問題是阿拉科斯納斯達克(Sequoia Capital:ALLK)股東是否應該擔心其燒錢的速度。就本文而言,現金消耗是指一家不盈利的公司為其增長提供資金而花費現金的年度比率;其負的自由現金流。我們將首先將其現金消耗與其現金儲備進行比較,以計算其現金跑道。
查看我們對阿拉科斯的最新分析
阿拉科斯有很長的現金跑道嗎?
一家公司的現金跑道是指以目前的現金消耗率消耗其現金儲備所需的時間。截至2022年6月,阿拉科斯的現金為2.12億美元,沒有債務。就去年而言,該公司燒掉了3.5億美元。這意味着,截至2022年6月,該公司擁有約7個月的現金跑道。這是一條相當短的現金跑道,表明該公司必須要麼減少年度現金消耗,要麼補充現金。然而,我們應該注意到,如果我們推斷出它的現金消耗最近的趨勢,那麼它的現金跑道將會更長。下圖顯示了其現金餘額在過去幾年中的變化情況。
納斯達克:ALLK債轉股歷史2022年9月20日阿拉科斯的燒錢是如何隨着時間的推移而變化的?
Allakos去年沒有錄得任何收入,這表明它是一家仍在發展業務的早期公司。因此,雖然我們不能通過銷售來理解增長,但我們可以看看現金消耗是如何變化的,以瞭解支出隨着時間的推移是如何趨勢的。事實上,它在過去一年裏大力增加了支出,使現金消耗增加了101%。公平地説,在不給資產負債表帶來壓力的情況下,這種增長率不可能保持很長時間。雖然過去總是值得研究的,但最重要的是未來。因此,看看我們的分析師對該公司的預測是很有意義的。
阿拉科斯籌集現金有多容易?
鑑於Allakos的現金消耗軌跡,Allakos的股東們應該已經在考慮,它未來籌集更多現金可能有多容易。一般來説,上市企業可以通過發行股票或承擔債務來籌集新的現金。通常情況下,企業會自行發售新股,以籌集現金並推動增長。通過觀察一家公司相對於其市值的現金消耗,我們可以洞察到,如果公司需要籌集足夠的現金來支付另一年的現金消耗,股東將被稀釋多少。
阿拉科斯3.5億美元的現金消耗約佔其4.95億美元市值的71%。考慮到現金消耗相對於整個公司的市值有多大,我們會認為它是一隻高風險股票,真正有可能被稀釋。
阿拉科斯燒錢的風險有多大?
正如你現在可能已經知道的那樣,我們非常擔心阿拉科斯的燒錢行為。以其相對於市值的現金消耗為例,這表明該公司未來可能難以為自己融資。雖然相對於其市值來説,它的現金消耗沒有那麼糟糕,但它的現金跑道也是一個令人擔憂的問題,考慮到上面提到的一切,我們很難找到很多值得樂觀的地方。我們在本文中考慮的措施讓我們相信,它的現金消耗實際上相當令人擔憂,而且它疲軟的現金狀況似乎可能以某種方式讓股東付出代價。另一方面,阿拉科斯已經5個警告標誌(和2個令人不快的地方)我們認為你應該知道。
如果你更願意看看另一家基本面更好的公司,那麼不要錯過這一預期免費有趣的公司名單,擁有高股本回報率和低債務的公司,或者這些預計都將增長的股票名單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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