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Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Central China New Life's (HKG:9983) Robust Earnings
Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Central China New Life's (HKG:9983) Robust Earnings
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Central China New Life Limited's (HKG:9983) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis suggests that this might be because shareholders have noticed some concerning underlying factors.
See our latest analysis for Central China New Life
SEHK:9983 Earnings and Revenue History September 15th 2022Examining Cashflow Against Central China New Life's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Central China New Life has an accrual ratio of 1.36 for the year to June 2022. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥184m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥649.2m. It's worth noting that Central China New Life generated positive FCF of CN¥532m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Unfortunately (in the short term) Central China New Life saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth CN¥127m. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Central China New Life to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.
Our Take On Central China New Life's Profit Performance
In conclusion, Central China New Life's accrual ratio suggests that its statutory earnings are not backed by cash flow, even though unusual items weighed on profit. Based on these factors, we think it's very unlikely that Central China New Life's statutory profits make it seem much weaker than it is. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Central China New Life at this point in time. For example, Central China New Life has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
Our examination of Central China New Life has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
儘管公佈了一些強勁的收益,但市場華中新人壽有限公司(HKG:9983)股票波動不大。我們的分析表明,這可能是因為股東注意到了一些潛在的因素。
查看我們對華中新生活的最新分析
聯交所:9983盈利及收入歷史2022年9月15日對照華中新人壽盈利考察現金流
正如金融書呆子們已經知道的那樣,現金流應計比率是評估一家公司的自由現金流(FCF)與利潤匹配程度的關鍵指標。為了得到應計比率,我們首先從一個時期的利潤中減去FCF,然後用這個數字除以該時期的平均運營資產。你可以把來自現金流的應計比率看作是‘非FCF利潤率’。
因此,當一家公司的應計比率為負時,它實際上被認為是一件好事,但如果它的應計比率為正,那就是一件壞事。雖然應計比率高於零並不令人擔憂,但我們確實認為,當一家公司的應計比率相對較高時,這一點值得注意。這是因為一些學術研究表明,高應計制比率往往會導致較低的利潤或較低的利潤增長。
華中新人壽截至2022年6月的年度應計比率為1.36。從統計上講,這對未來的收益是一個真正的負面影響。事實上,在此期間,該公司沒有產生任何自由現金流。在過去的一年裏,它實際上負面自由現金流為1.84億元,而前述利潤為6.492億元。值得注意的是,華中新生命一年前產生了5.32億元的正FCF,所以至少他們過去做到了。話雖如此,故事中還有更多的東西。應計比率反映了不尋常項目對法定利潤的影響,至少在一定程度上是這樣。
這可能會讓你想知道,分析師對未來盈利能力的預測是什麼。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於他們估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
異常項目對利潤的影響
不幸的是(在短期內),華中新人壽的利潤減少了價值1.27億元人民幣的不尋常項目。在這種情況下,這是一個非現金費用,它會更容易有較高的現金轉換率,所以令人驚訝的是,應計比率講述了一個不同的故事。看到不尋常的項目讓公司損失利潤從來都不是件好事,但從好的方面來看,情況可能很快就會改善。我們查看了數千家上市公司,發現不尋常的項目往往是一次性的。考慮到這些項目被認為是不尋常的,這並不令人驚訝。假設這些不尋常的支出不會再次出現,我們因此預計,在其他條件不變的情況下,華中新人壽明年將產生更高的利潤。
我們對華中新人壽盈利表現的看法
總而言之,華中新人壽的應計比率表明,其法定收益不受現金流的支持,儘管不尋常的項目拖累了利潤。基於這些因素,我們認為華中新人壽的法定利潤不太可能讓它看起來比實際情況弱得多。因此,儘管盈利質量很重要,但考慮到華中新人壽目前面臨的風險也同樣重要。例如,華中新生活就有2個警告標誌(和1個潛在的嚴重問題)我們認為您應該知道。
我們對華中新生活的調查集中在某些因素上,這些因素可能會讓該公司的收益看起來比實際情況更好。但如果你有能力將注意力集中在細枝末節上,總會有更多的東西需要發現。例如,許多人認為高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟指標,而另一些人則喜歡“跟着錢走”,尋找內部人士正在買入的股票。雖然這可能需要為您做一些研究,但您可能會發現免費擁有高股本回報率的公司的集合,或者是內部人士購買的有用的股票清單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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