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Is Times China Holdings (HKG:1233) A Risky Investment?
Is Times China Holdings (HKG:1233) A Risky Investment?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Times China Holdings Limited (HKG:1233) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Times China Holdings
How Much Debt Does Times China Holdings Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Times China Holdings had debt of CN¥50.1b at the end of June 2022, a reduction from CN¥55.7b over a year. However, it does have CN¥5.64b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥44.4b.
SEHK:1233 Debt to Equity History September 12th 2022A Look At Times China Holdings' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Times China Holdings had liabilities of CN¥104.2b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥38.0b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥5.64b as well as receivables valued at CN¥10.4b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥126.1b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥2.32b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Times China Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Strangely Times China Holdings has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 7.4, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 18.0. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Importantly, Times China Holdings's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 33% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Times China Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Times China Holdings reported free cash flow worth 15% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Times China Holdings's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Times China Holdings has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Times China Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾説過一句名言:波動性遠非風險的代名詞。當你考察一家公司的風險有多大時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因為當一家企業倒閉時,債務往往會涉及到它。我們注意到時代中國控股有限公司(HKG:1233)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但這筆債務對股東來説是一個擔憂嗎?
債務在什麼時候是危險的?
一般來説,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成為一個真正的問題,無論是通過籌集資金還是用自己的現金流。最終,如果公司不能履行其償還債務的法定義務,股東可能會一無所有地離開。然而,更常見(但代價仍然高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東的股份,只是為了支撐其資產負債表。話雖如此,最常見的情況是一家公司對債務管理得相當好--並對自己有利。當考慮一家企業使用了多少債務時,首先要做的是把現金和債務放在一起看。
查看我們對泰晤士報中國控股的最新分析
時代中國控股揹負着多少債務?
下圖顯示,截至2022年6月底,時代中國控股的債務為501億加元,低於一年內的557億加元。你可以點擊查看更多詳細信息。然而,它確實有56.4億加元的現金抵消了這一點,導致淨債務約為444億加元。
聯交所:1233債轉股歷史2022年9月12日泰晤士報中國控股的負債情況
從最新的資產負債表可以看到,時代中國控股有1042億元的負債在一年內到期,還有380億元的負債在一年內到期。作為對這些債務的抵銷,該公司有56.4億加元的現金以及價值104億加元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額為人民幣1261億元,超過了現金和近期應收賬款的總和。
這一赤字給這家23.2億元人民幣的公司蒙上了一層陰影,就像一個龐然大物聳立在凡人之上。因此,我們肯定認為股東需要密切關注這一事件。歸根結底,如果其債權人要求償還債務,時代中國控股很可能需要進行一次重大的資本重組。
為了評估一家公司的債務相對於它的收益,我們計算它的淨債務除以它的利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆蓋)。這樣,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量,也考慮了為其支付的利率。
奇怪的是,時代中國控股的EBITDA比率高達7.4,這意味着債務很高,但利息覆蓋率高達18.0。因此,要麼它可以獲得非常便宜的長期債務,要麼利息支出將會增長!重要的是,時代中國控股的息税前利潤在過去12個月裏下跌了33%,令人瞠目結舌。如果這種下降趨勢繼續下去,那麼償還債務將比在素食大會上出售鵝肝醬更難。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定時代中國控股能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你關注未來,你可以看看這個免費顯示分析師利潤預測的報告。
最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤只是不能削減這一點。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化為自由現金流。在過去的三年裏,時代中國控股公佈的自由現金流相當於其息税前利潤的15%,這確實是相當低的。這種疲軟的現金轉換水平削弱了它管理和償還債務的能力。
我們的觀點
從表面上看,時代中國控股的息税前利潤增長率讓我們對該股持懷疑態度,其總負債水平並不比一年中最繁忙之夜的一家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具誘惑力。但從好的方面來看,它的利息覆蓋是一個好兆頭,讓我們更加樂觀。考慮到上述所有因素,時代中國控股似乎負債累累。雖然一些投資者喜歡這種冒險的投資方式,但這肯定不是我們喜歡的類型。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。例如,我們發現時代中國控股的5個警告信號(1讓我們有點不舒服!)在這裏投資之前你應該意識到這一點。
如果你有興趣投資於可以在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的企業,那麼看看這個免費資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業名單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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