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Is China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319) Trading At A 34% Discount?
Is China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319) Trading At A 34% Discount?
How far off is China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for China Mengniu Dairy
Crunching The Numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥3.77b | CN¥5.78b | CN¥5.47b | CN¥6.16b | CN¥6.66b | CN¥7.06b | CN¥7.40b | CN¥7.68b | CN¥7.92b | CN¥8.13b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x9 | Analyst x9 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 8.07% | Est @ 6.11% | Est @ 4.74% | Est @ 3.78% | Est @ 3.11% | Est @ 2.65% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 5.4% | CN¥3.6k | CN¥5.2k | CN¥4.7k | CN¥5.0k | CN¥5.1k | CN¥5.1k | CN¥5.1k | CN¥5.0k | CN¥4.9k | CN¥4.8k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥49b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.4%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥8.1b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (5.4%– 1.6%) = CN¥213b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥213b÷ ( 1 + 5.4%)10= CN¥126b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥174b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$33.0, the company appears quite good value at a 34% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SEHK:2319 Discounted Cash Flow September 12th 2022The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at China Mengniu Dairy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For China Mengniu Dairy, there are three further elements you should further examine:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for China Mengniu Dairy that you need to consider before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 2319's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
蒙牛乳業股份有限公司(HKG:2319)距離其內在價值還有多遠?使用最新的財務數據,我們將通過提取預期的未來現金流並將其貼現到今天的價值,來看看股票的定價是否公平。這將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型來實現。不要被行話嚇跑了,它背後的數學實際上是相當簡單的。
我們要提醒的是,對一家公司進行估值的方法有很多種,與貼現現金流一樣,每種方法在某些情況下都有優缺點。如果你想了解更多關於貼現現金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中詳細閲讀這種計算背後的原理。
看看我們對蒙牛乳業的最新分析
仔細研究這些數字
我們將使用兩階段貼現現金流模型,顧名思義,該模型考慮了兩個增長階段。第一階段通常是一個較高的成長期,接近終值,在第二個“穩定增長”階段捕捉到。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年為企業帶來的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來的一美元不如現在的一美元,所以我們將這些未來現金流的價值貼現到以今天的美元計算的估計價值:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | 淨額37.7億元 | CN元57.8億元 | CN元54.7億元 | CN元61.6億元 | CN元66.6億元 | 淨額70.6億元 | CN人民幣74億元 | 淨額76.8億元 | 淨額79.2億元 | CN元81.3億元 |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師x9 | 分析師x9 | 分析師x1 | 分析師x1 | EST@8.07% | Est@6.11% | Est@4.74% | Est@3.78% | Est@3.11% | Est@2.65% |
現值(CN元,百萬元)貼現5.4% | CN元3.6萬元 | CN元5.2K | CN元4.7K | CN元5.0K | CN元5.1K | CN元5.1K | CN元5.1K | CN元5.0K | CN元4.9K | CN元4.8K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元490億元
第二階段也被稱為終端價值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(1.6%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用5.4%的權益成本將未來現金流貼現至當前價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元8.1b×(1+1.6%)?(5.4%-1.6%)=CN元213b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元213B?(1+5.4%)10=CN元1260億元
那麼,總價值或權益價值就是未來現金流的現值之和,在這種情況下,未來現金流的現值為1740億加元。在最後一步,我們用股本價值除以流通股的數量。相對於目前33.0港元的股價,該公司的價值似乎相當不錯,較目前的股價有34%的折讓。然而,估值是不精確的工具,更像是一臺望遠鏡--移動幾度,就會到達另一個星系。一定要記住這一點。
聯交所:2,319貼現現金流2022年9月12日假設
現在,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將蒙牛乳業視為潛在股東,我們使用股權成本作為貼現率,而不是考慮債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了5.4%,這是基於槓桿率為0.800的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
下一步:
儘管一家公司的估值很重要,但它不應該是你在研究一家公司時唯一考慮的指標。貼現現金流模型並不是投資估值的全部。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,如果終端價值增長率稍有調整,可能會極大地改變整體結果。為什麼內在價值高於當前股價?對於蒙牛乳業來説,還有三個因素你應該進一步審視:
- 風險:舉個例子,我們發現蒙牛乳業的1個警示標誌你在這裏投資之前需要考慮的問題。
- 未來收益:2319的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每隻香港股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的內在價值,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
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在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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