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Earnings Are Growing at Jiangxi Copper (HKG:358) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects
Earnings Are Growing at Jiangxi Copper (HKG:358) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects
Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Unfortunately the Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (HKG:358) share price slid 28% over twelve months. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 14%. On the other hand, the stock is actually up 9.9% over three years. Furthermore, it's down 21% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Jiangxi Copper isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
See our latest analysis for Jiangxi Copper
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Jiangxi Copper share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 111%. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.
We don't see any weakness in the Jiangxi Copper's dividend so the steady payout can't really explain the share price drop. The revenue trend doesn't seem to explain why the share price is down. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
SEHK:358 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 21st 2022It is of course excellent to see how Jiangxi Copper has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Jiangxi Copper the TSR over the last 1 year was -24%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 14% in the twelve months, Jiangxi Copper shareholders did even worse, losing 24% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Jiangxi Copper , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
投資者可以通過購買指數基金來接近平均市場回報。積極投資者的目標是買入表現遠遠好於大盤的股票--但在這個過程中,他們面臨表現不佳的風險。不幸的是,江西銅業股份股份有限公司(HKG:358)股價在12個月內下滑28%。這明顯低於約14%的市場跌幅。另一方面,股票實際上是向上三年內為9.9%。此外,它在大約四分之一的時間裏下跌了21%。對於持有者來説,這並不是什麼樂趣。
如果以過去一週為標準,投資者對江西銅業股份的情緒並不樂觀,所以讓我們看看基本面和股價之間是否存在錯配。
參見我們對江西銅業股份的最新分析
雖然有效市場假説繼續被一些人傳授,但事實證明,市場是過度反應的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。評估圍繞一家公司的情緒變化的一個有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。
不幸的是,在江西銅業股份股價下跌的12個月裏,它的每股收益(EPS)提高了111%。當然,這種情況可能會暴露出之前對增長的過度樂觀。
令人驚訝的是,儘管每股收益有所改善,但股價卻下跌了這麼多。因此,很容易證明看看其他一些指標是合理的。
我們沒有看到江西銅業股份的股息有任何疲軟,所以穩定的股息並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。營收趨勢似乎無法解釋股價下跌的原因。當然,除非市場預期收入會上升。
你可以在下面看到收入和收入是如何隨着時間的推移而變化的(點擊圖片可以發現確切的價值)。
聯交所:358盈利及收入增長2022年8月21日看到江西銅業股份多年來是如何盈利的,當然很棒,但對股東來説,未來更重要。你可以看到它的資產負債表是如何隨着時間的推移而加強(或削弱)的免費交互式圖形。
那股息呢?
在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。TSR包括任何剝離或貼現融資的價值,以及任何股息,基於股息再投資的假設。公平地説,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。我們注意到,對於江西銅業股份來説,過去一年的TSR為-24%,比上面提到的股價回報要好。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異是沒有好處的!
不同的視角
雖然大盤在過去12個月裏損失了約14%,但江西銅業股份股東的表現更糟,損失了24%(甚至包括股息)。話雖如此,在下跌的市場中,一些股票不可避免地會被超賣。關鍵是要密切關注基本面的發展。不幸的是,去年的表現可能預示着尚未解決的挑戰,因為它比過去五年3%的年化損失更糟糕。我們意識到,羅斯柴爾德男爵曾説過,投資者應該“在街上血淋淋的時候買入”,但我們警告投資者,首先應該確保他們購買的是一家高質量的企業。我發現,把股價作為衡量企業業績的長期指標是非常有趣的。但為了真正獲得洞察力,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,考慮一下無處不在的投資風險幽靈。我們已經確定了兩個警告信號與江西銅業股份的合作,瞭解他們應該是你投資過程的一部分。
對於那些想要找到贏得投資這免費最近有內幕收購的不斷增長的公司名單可能就是合適的選擇。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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