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Travel + Leisure (NYSE:TNL) Stock Performs Better Than Its Underlying Earnings Growth Over Last Five Years
Travel + Leisure (NYSE:TNL) Stock Performs Better Than Its Underlying Earnings Growth Over Last Five Years
The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Travel + Leisure Co. (NYSE:TNL) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 51% over a half decade. In contrast, the stock price has popped 8.6% in the last thirty days. However, this may be a matter of broader market optimism, since stocks are up 8.9% in the same time.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$149m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
View our latest analysis for Travel + Leisure
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Travel + Leisure actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.1% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the the market had expectations of much higher growth, five years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.
It could be that the revenue decline of 7.5% per year is viewed as evidence that Travel + Leisure is shrinking. This has probably encouraged some shareholders to sell down the stock.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
NYSE:TNL Earnings and Revenue Growth August 19th 2022We know that Travel + Leisure has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Travel + Leisure will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Travel + Leisure's TSR for the last 5 years was 29%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While it's never nice to take a loss, Travel + Leisure shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 0.3% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 7.1%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Travel + Leisure better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Travel + Leisure (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .
We will like Travel + Leisure better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
選股的主要目的是尋找跑贏大盤的股票。但在任何投資組合中,個股之間的結果都會喜憂參半。所以我們不會責怪長期旅遊+休閒公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:TNL)股東對他們持有股票的決定表示懷疑,該股在過去五年中下跌了51%。相比之下,該公司股價在過去30天裏上漲了8.6%。然而,這可能是一個更廣泛的市場樂觀情緒問題,因為同期股市上漲了8.9%。
更令人鼓舞的是,僅在過去的7天裏,該公司的市值就增加了1.49億美元,所以讓我們看看我們是否能確定是什麼導致了股東五年的虧損。
查看我們對旅行+休閒的最新分析
雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映的是投資者情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的企業表現。評估圍繞一家公司的情緒變化的一個有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。
不幸的是,在股價下滑的五年裏,旅遊休閒的每股收益(EPS)實際上以每年3.1%的速度增長。考慮到股價的反應,人們可能會懷疑,每股收益不是這段時間內業務表現的良好指南(可能是因為一次性的虧損或收益)。也有可能,此前市場非常樂觀,因此儘管每股收益有所改善,但該股仍令人失望。
通過瀏覽這些數字,我們可以假設,五年前,市場曾預期會有更高的增長。看看其他指標可能更好地解釋了股價的變化。
每年7.5%的收入下降可能被視為旅遊+休閒正在收縮的證據。這可能鼓勵了一些股東拋售該股。
您可以在下圖中看到收益和收入隨時間的變化(單擊圖表查看確切的值)。
紐約證券交易所:TNL收益和收入增長2022年8月19日我們知道,旅遊+休閒最近提高了底線,但未來會是什麼樣子呢?因此,看看分析師認為旅遊+休閒未來的收入(免費利潤預測)是很有意義的。
那股息呢?
在考察投資回報時,重要的是要考慮到股東總回報(TSR)和股價回報。TSR是一種回報計算,計入了現金股息的價值(假設收到的任何股息都進行了再投資),以及任何貼現融資和剝離的計算價值。公平地説,TSR為支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖景。恰好,旅遊+休閒最近5年的TSR為29%,超過了前面提到的股價回報。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異是沒有好處的!
不同的視角
雖然虧損從來都不是好事,但旅遊+休閒公司的股東們可以感到欣慰的是,包括股息在內,他們過去12個月的0.3%的虧損並沒有市場虧損7.1%左右那麼糟糕。較長期的投資者不會如此沮喪,因為他們在五年內每年會獲得5%的收益。可能該業務只是面臨一些短期問題,但股東應密切關注基本面。跟蹤股價的長期表現總是很有趣的。但要更好地理解旅遊+休閒,我們還需要考慮許多其他因素。為此,您應該瞭解3個警示標誌我們已經發現了旅遊+休閒(包括1個不容忽視的)。
如果我們看到一些大的內部購買,我們會更喜歡旅遊+休閒。在我們等待的時候,看看這個免費最近有大量內幕收購的成長型公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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