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The Past Five Years for China Construction Bank (HKG:939) Investors Has Not Been Profitable
The Past Five Years for China Construction Bank (HKG:939) Investors Has Not Been Profitable
For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in China Construction Bank Corporation (HKG:939), since the last five years saw the share price fall 28%. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for China Construction Bank
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
While the share price declined over five years, China Construction Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 5.5% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.
The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:939 Earnings and Revenue Growth August 18th 2022China Construction Bank is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of China Construction Bank, it has a TSR of -1.9% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that China Construction Bank shares lost 7.0% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 18%. Given the total loss of 0.4% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. Whilst Baron Rothschild does tell the investor "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", buyers would need to examine the data carefully to be comfortable that the business itself is sound. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at China Construction Bank's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對許多人來説,投資的主要目的是創造比整體市場更高的回報。但即使是最好的選股者也只有在一些選擇。在這一點上,一些股東可能會質疑他們在建設銀行(HKG:939),自過去五年股價下跌28%以來。此外,它在大約四分之一的時間裏下跌了13%。對於持有者來説,這並不是什麼樂趣。
現在讓我們來看看該公司的基本面,看看長期股東回報是否與基礎業務的表現相匹配。
查看我們對中國建設銀行的最新分析
雖然有效市場假説繼續被一些人傳授,但事實證明,市場是過度反應的動態系統,投資者並不總是理性的。一種不完美但簡單的方法來考慮市場對一家公司的看法是如何改變的,那就是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。
儘管股價在五年內下跌,但中國建設銀行實際上成功地增加每股收益平均每年增長5.5%。因此,每股收益似乎並不能很好地指導人們理解市場對股票的估值。也有可能,此前市場非常樂觀,因此儘管每股收益有所改善,但該股仍令人失望。
由於每股收益增長率和股價增長率之間的鮮明對比,我們傾向於通過其他指標來了解圍繞股票不斷變化的市場情緒。
穩定的股息並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。我們目前還不清楚為什麼股價會下跌,但進一步的研究可能會提供一些答案。
您可以在下圖中看到收益和收入隨時間的變化(單擊圖表查看確切的值)。
聯交所:939盈利及收入增長2022年8月18日中國建設銀行為投資者所熟知,許多聰明的分析師曾試圖預測未來的利潤水平。因此,我們建議您查看以下內容免費顯示共識預測的報告
那股息呢?
重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報。TSR包括任何剝離或貼現融資的價值,以及任何股息,基於股息再投資的假設。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來説,TSR往往比股價回報高得多。以中國建設銀行為例,它過去5年的總資產收益率為-1.9%。這超過了我們之前提到的它的股價回報。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異是沒有好處的!
不同的視角
雖然看到中國建設銀行股價全年下跌7.0%肯定令人失望,但這並沒有市場18%的跌幅那麼糟糕。考慮到過去五年每年0.4%的總虧損,過去12個月的回報率似乎有所下降。雖然羅斯柴爾德男爵確實會告訴投資者“在街上有血的時候買入,即使血是你自己的”,但買家需要仔細檢查數據,才能確信業務本身是穩健的。考慮到這一點,下一步可靠的舉措可能是看看中國建設銀行的股息記錄。這免費交互式圖形是一個很好的起點。
如果你更願意看看另一家公司--一家財務狀況可能更好的公司--那麼不要錯過這一點免費已證明自己能夠實現盈利增長的公司名單。
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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