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Northern Oil and Gas' (NYSE:NOG) Earnings Aren't As Good As They Appear
Northern Oil and Gas' (NYSE:NOG) Earnings Aren't As Good As They Appear
Despite posting strong earnings, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSE:NOG) stock didn't move much over the last week. We looked deeper into the numbers and found that shareholders might be concerned with some underlying weaknesses.
See our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas
NYSE:NOG Earnings and Revenue History August 11th 2022A Closer Look At Northern Oil and Gas' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Over the twelve months to June 2022, Northern Oil and Gas recorded an accrual ratio of 0.55. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$327m despite its profit of US$193.6m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was US$71k a year ago though, so Northern Oil and Gas has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Notably, the company has issued new shares, thus diluting existing shareholders and reducing their share of future earnings. One positive for Northern Oil and Gas shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Northern Oil and Gas issued 19% more new shares over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. Check out Northern Oil and Gas' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
How Is Dilution Impacting Northern Oil and Gas' Earnings Per Share (EPS)?
We don't have any data on the company's profits from three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders.
In the long term, if Northern Oil and Gas' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.
Our Take On Northern Oil and Gas' Profit Performance
As it turns out, Northern Oil and Gas couldn't match its profit with cashflow and its dilution means that shareholders own less of the company than the did before (unless they bought more shares). Considering all this we'd argue Northern Oil and Gas' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Our analysis shows 5 warning signs for Northern Oil and Gas (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
儘管公佈了強勁的收益,北方石油天然氣公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:NOG)的股票在過去一週沒有太大變動。我們更深入地研究了這些數字,發現股東可能擔心一些潛在的弱點。
查看我們對北方石油天然氣公司的最新分析
紐約證券交易所:NOG收益和收入歷史2022年8月11日仔細看看北方石油天然氣公司的收益
許多投資者都沒有聽説過現金流應計比率但它實際上是衡量一家公司在給定時期內自由現金流(FCF)支持公司利潤的程度的有用指標。應計制比率從給定期間的利潤中減去FCF,然後將結果除以該時間段內公司的平均運營資產。你可以把來自現金流的應計比率看作是‘非FCF利潤率’。
因此,當一家公司的應計比率為負時,它實際上被認為是一件好事,但如果它的應計比率為正,那就是一件壞事。雖然應計比率高於零並不令人擔憂,但我們確實認為,當一家公司的應計比率相對較高時,這一點值得注意。這是因為一些學術研究表明,高應計制比率往往會導致較低的利潤或較低的利潤增長。
在截至2022年6月的12個月中,北方石油天然氣公司的應計比率為0.55。一般來説,這對未來的盈利能力來説是個不好的預兆。換句話説,該公司在那段時間沒有產生一分錢的自由現金流。在過去的12個月裏,它實際上有負面自由現金流,儘管如上所述利潤為1.936億美元,但仍有3.27億美元的流出。我們看到一年前的FCF是71K美元,所以北方石油天然氣公司至少在過去能夠產生正的FCF。值得注意的是,該公司發行了新股,從而稀釋了現有股東的股份,並減少了他們在未來收益中的份額。對北方石油天然氣公司的股東來説,一個積極的因素是,該公司去年的應計比率明顯好於去年,這讓人們有理由相信,該公司未來可能會恢復更強勁的現金轉換。如果情況確實如此,股東應該期待本年度相對於利潤的現金流有所改善。
這可能會讓你想知道,分析師對未來盈利能力的預測是什麼。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於他們估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
評估收益質量的一個重要方面是看一家公司在多大程度上稀釋了股東的權益。碰巧的是,北方石油天然氣公司去年增發了19%的新股。這意味着它的收益被分配到更多的股票中。每股收益等指標幫助我們瞭解實際股東從公司利潤中受益的程度,而淨收益水平則讓我們更好地瞭解公司的絕對規模。點擊此鏈接,查看北方石油天然氣公司歷史上的每股收益增長。
稀釋對北方石油天然氣公司的每股收益(EPS)有何影響?
我們沒有關於該公司三年前利潤的任何數據。即使只關注過去12個月,我們也沒有有意義的增長率,因為一年前它也出現了虧損。但拋開算術不談,看到一項以前不盈利的業務何時好轉總是一件好事(儘管我們承認,如果不要求攤薄,利潤會更高)。因此,你可以看到,股權稀釋對股東產生了一些影響。
從長遠來看,如果北方石油天然氣公司的收益每股可以增加,那麼股價也應該是。然而,如果其利潤增加,而每股收益持平(甚至下降),那麼股東可能看不到太多好處。出於這個原因,你可以説,從長遠來看,每股收益比淨利潤更重要,假設目標是評估一家公司的股價是否可能增長。
我們對北方石油天然氣公司利潤表現的看法
事實證明,北方石油天然氣公司的利潤無法與現金流相匹配,其稀釋意味着股東持有的公司股份比以前少(除非他們購買了更多的股票)。考慮到這一切,我們認為北方石油天然氣公司的利潤可能給人一種過於慷慨的印象,表明其可持續的盈利水平。考慮到這一點,除非我們對風險有透徹的瞭解,否則我們不會考慮投資股票。我們的分析顯示北方石油天然氣的5個警示標誌(1讓我們有點不舒服!)我們強烈建議你在投資之前先看看這些。
在這篇文章中,我們研究了一些可能削弱利潤數字效用的因素,我們對此持謹慎態度。但如果你有能力將注意力集中在細枝末節上,總會有更多的東西需要發現。一些人認為,高股本回報率是高質量企業的良好標誌。所以你可能想看看這個免費擁有高股本回報率的公司的集合,或內部人士正在購買的這份股票清單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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