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Here's Why AES (NYSE:AES) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Here's Why AES (NYSE:AES) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for AES
What Is AES's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 AES had US$21.4b of debt, an increase on US$20.0b, over one year. On the flip side, it has US$1.67b in cash leading to net debt of about US$19.7b.
NYSE:AES Debt to Equity History August 9th 2022A Look At AES' Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, AES had liabilities of US$5.99b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$25.2b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.67b and US$1.77b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$27.8b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$15.9b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, AES would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.9, it's fair to say AES does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 3.3 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Worse, AES's EBIT was down 21% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine AES's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, AES recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
To be frank both AES's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And furthermore, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow also fails to instill confidence. Considering all the factors previously mentioned, we think that AES really is carrying too much debt. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with AES .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一些人説,作為投資者,考慮風險的最佳方式是波動性,而不是債務,但巴菲特曾説過一句名言:波動性遠非風險的同義詞。因此,當你評估一家公司的風險有多大時,聰明的投資者似乎知道債務--通常涉及破產--是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是美國國家航空航天局(紐約證券交易所代碼:AES)確實揹負着債務。但這筆債務對股東來説是一個擔憂嗎?
為什麼債務會帶來風險?
債務幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是用新資本還是用自由現金流。最終,如果公司不能履行其償還債務的法定義務,股東可能會一無所有地離開。儘管這並不常見,但我們確實經常看到負債累累的公司永久性地稀釋股東的權益,因為貸款人迫使他們以令人沮喪的價格籌集資金。然而,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本投資於高回報率增長的企業來説,債務可以成為一個非常好的工具。在考慮一家公司的債務水平時,第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。
查看我們對AES的最新分析
愛依斯的債務是什麼?
您可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2022年6月,AES的債務為214億美元,比一年前增加了200億美元。另一方面,它擁有16.7億美元的現金,導致淨債務約為197億美元。
紐約證券交易所:AES債轉股歷史2022年8月9日淺談美國航空公司的負債
根據最新報告的資產負債表,AES有59.9億美元的負債在12個月內到期,252億美元的負債在12個月後到期。另一方面,它有16.7億美元的現金和17.7億美元的應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,其負債比現金和(近期)應收賬款之和高出278億美元。
這一不足給這家市值159億美元的公司本身帶來了沉重的負擔,就像一個孩子在一個裝滿書籍、運動裝備和小號的巨大揹包的重壓下掙扎一樣。因此,我們肯定認為股東需要密切關注這一事件。畢竟,如果aes今天不得不償還債權人的債務,它很可能需要進行一次大規模的資本重組。
為了評估一家公司的債務相對於它的收益,我們計算它的淨債務除以它的利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆蓋)。這樣,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量,也考慮了為其支付的利率。
在淨債務與EBITDA之比為5.9的情況下,公平地説,AES確實有大量債務。但好消息是,它擁有相當令人欣慰的3.3倍的利息覆蓋率,這表明它可以負責任地履行自己的義務。更糟糕的是,愛依斯的息税前利潤比去年下降了21%。如果長期盈利保持這樣的水平,它在地獄裏償還債務的機會就像滾雪球一樣渺茫。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是你關注的領域。但未來的收益將決定AES未來維持健康資產負債表的能力,這是最重要的。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
最後,儘管税務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化為自由現金流。在過去三年中,AES的自由現金流總計為負。在自由現金流為負的公司手中,債務通常更昂貴,風險也幾乎總是更高。股東們應該希望情況有所改善。
我們的觀點
坦率地説,AES的息税前利潤增長率和保持在總負債之上的過往記錄都讓我們對其債務水平感到相當不安。此外,它將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流也未能灌輸信心。考慮到前面提到的所有因素,我們認為AES確實揹負了太多的債務。對我們來説,這使得這隻股票相當冒險,就像閉着眼睛走過狗公園一樣。但一些投資者可能會有不同的感受。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但歸根結底,每家公司都可能包含存在於資產負債表之外的風險。為此,您應該意識到2個警告標誌我們已經用俄歇電子能譜發現了。
如果你有興趣投資於可以在沒有債務負擔的情況下增長利潤的企業,那麼看看這個免費資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業名單。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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