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Is Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development (SHSE:600663) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development (SHSE:600663) Using Too Much Debt?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600663) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development
What Is Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development had CN¥57.4b of debt, an increase on CN¥48.6b, over one year. However, it also had CN¥12.5b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥45.0b.
SHSE:600663 Debt to Equity History August 2nd 2022How Strong Is Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development had liabilities of CN¥45.8b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥36.4b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥12.5b in cash and CN¥4.77b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥65.1b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥35.2b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.8, it's fair to say Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development does have a significant amount of debt. However, its interest coverage of 5.1 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. Unfortunately, Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development saw its EBIT slide 5.5% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT isn't such a worry. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一些人説,作為投資者,考慮風險的最佳方式是波動性,而不是債務,但巴菲特曾説過一句名言:波動性遠非風險的同義詞。當你考察一家公司的風險有多大時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因為當一家企業倒閉時,債務往往會涉及到它。我們注意到上海陸家嘴金融貿易區發展有限公司(上交所:600663)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否讓該公司面臨風險。
為什麼債務會帶來風險?
當一家企業無法輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他債務就會變得有風險,無論是通過自由現金流還是通過以有吸引力的價格籌集資本。資本主義的一部分是“創造性破壞”的過程,破產的企業被銀行家無情地清算。然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東的股份,才能控制債務。當然,債務的好處是,它往往代表着廉價資本,特別是當它用能夠以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先同時考慮現金和債務水平。
查看我們對上海陸家嘴金融貿易區發展的最新分析
上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區的債務是什麼?
你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數據,但它顯示,截至2022年6月,上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區有574億元人民幣的債務,比一年前增加了486億元。然而,它也有125億元現金,因此其淨債務為450億元。
上證綜指:600663債轉股歷史2022年8月2日上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區資產負債表有多強?
放大最新的資產負債表數據可以看到,上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區有458億元的負債在12個月內到期,還有364億元的負債在12個月內到期。作為抵消,它有125億加元的現金和47.7億加元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,該公司的負債總額為人民幣651億元,超過了現金和近期應收賬款的總和。
這一赤字給這家352億元人民幣的公司蒙上了一層陰影,就像一個龐然大物聳立在凡人之上。因此,我們肯定認為股東需要密切關注這一事件。畢竟,如果上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區今天不得不償還債權人的債務,它很可能需要進行一次重大的資本重組。
為了評估一家公司的債務相對於它的收益,我們計算它的淨債務除以它的利息、税項、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)和它的利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以它的利息支出(它的利息覆蓋)。這種方法的優點是,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(淨債務與EBITDA之比),也考慮了與債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。
上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區的淨債務與EBITDA之比為5.8,可以公平地説,上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區確實有大量債務。然而,其5.1的利息覆蓋率相當強勁,這是一個好跡象。不幸的是,上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區的息税前利潤在過去12個月裏下滑了5.5%。如果盈利趨勢繼續下去,那麼它的債務負擔將變得沉重,就像北極熊看着自己唯一的幼崽的心臟一樣。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是一個起點。但決定上海陸家嘴金融貿易區未來能否保持健康資產負債表的,最重要的是未來的收益。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
但我們的最後考慮也很重要,因為一家公司不能用賬面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,我們顯然需要看看息税前利潤是否會帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去的三年裏,上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區燒掉了大量的現金。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務的風險大得多。
我們的觀點
從表面上看,上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區將息税前利潤轉換為自由現金流讓我們對該股持懷疑態度,其總負債水平並不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚的一家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具誘惑力。話雖如此,它用息税前利潤來支付利息支出的能力並不是那麼令人擔憂。在考慮了討論的數據點後,我們認為上海陸家嘴金融貿易區開發區負債太多。這種風險對一些人來説是可以接受的,但肯定不會讓我們的船漂浮起來。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中瞭解到的債務最多。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中--遠非如此。例如,我們發現上海陸家嘴金融貿易區發展的2個警示(1讓我們有點不舒服!)在這裏投資之前你應該意識到這一點。
歸根結底,關注那些沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。你可以訪問我們的這類公司的特別名單(都有利潤增長的記錄)。這是免費的。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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