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Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603882) Shares Could Be 30% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603882) Shares Could Be 30% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603882) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group
The Model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥1.08b | CN¥1.08b | CN¥1.09b | CN¥1.11b | CN¥1.14b | CN¥1.16b | CN¥1.19b | CN¥1.23b | CN¥1.27b | CN¥1.30b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -1.35% | Est @ 0.03% | Est @ 0.99% | Est @ 1.67% | Est @ 2.14% | Est @ 2.47% | Est @ 2.7% | Est @ 2.86% | Est @ 2.98% | Est @ 3.05% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | CN¥1.0k | CN¥942 | CN¥888 | CN¥842 | CN¥802 | CN¥767 | CN¥735 | CN¥705 | CN¥677 | CN¥651 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥8.0b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.3b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (7.2%– 3.2%) = CN¥34b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥34b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= CN¥17b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥25b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥69.6, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SHSE:603882 Discounted Cash Flow August 1st 2022The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group, we've compiled three pertinent items you should assess:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
- Future Earnings: How does 603882's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我們將簡單介紹一種估值方法,該方法用於評估廣州金美診斷集團有限公司(上證號:603882)作為投資機會的吸引力,方法是將預期的未來現金流折現為今天的價值。這將使用貼現現金流(DCF)模型來實現。它真的沒有那麼多東西,儘管它可能看起來相當複雜。
對公司的估值可以有很多種方式,因此我們要指出,貼現現金流並不適用於每一種情況。如果你對這類估值還有一些亟待解決的問題,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我們對廣州金美診斷集團的最新分析
模型
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,也就是説,公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長率。一般來説,第一階段是較高增長階段,第二階段是較低增長階段。在第一階段,我們需要估計未來十年為企業帶來的現金流。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
貼現現金流就是這樣一種想法,即未來的一美元不如現在的一美元,所以我們將這些未來現金流的價值貼現到以今天的美元計算的估計價值:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | 淨額10.8億元 | 淨額10.8億元 | 淨額10.9億元 | CN元11.1億元 | CN元11.4億元 | CN元11.6億元 | CN元11.9億元 | CN元12.3億元 | CN元12.7億元 | CN人民幣13.億元 |
增長率預估來源 | Est@-1.35% | Est@0.03% | Est@0.99% | Est@1.67% | Est@2.14% | Est@2.47% | EST@2.7% | Est@2.86% | Est@2.98% | Est@3.05% |
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@7.2% | CN元10000元 | CN元942元 | CN元888元 | CN元842元 | CN元802元 | CN元767元 | CN元735元 | CN元705元 | CN元677元 | CN元651元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元80億元
在計算了最初10年內未來現金流的現值後,我們需要計算終止值,它考慮了第一階段之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。我們以7.2%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元1.3b×(1+3.2%)?(7.2%-3.2%)=CN元34b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元340億?(1+7.2%)10=CN元170億元
那麼,總價值或權益價值就是未來現金流的現值之和,在這種情況下,現金流是250億加元。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數量。與目前69.6元的股價相比,在撰寫本文時,該公司的估值似乎略有高估。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生很大影響,因此最好將其視為粗略估計,而不是精確到最後一分錢。
上海證交所:603882貼現現金流2022年8月1日假設
現在,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。投資的一部分是你自己對一家公司未來業績的評估,所以你自己試一試計算,檢查你自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將廣州金美診斷集團視為潛在股東,折現率使用股權成本,而不是計入債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了7.2%,這是基於槓桿率為0.800的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
下一步:
儘管一家公司的估值很重要,但它只是你需要對一家公司進行評估的眾多因素之一。貼現現金流模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生重大影響。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價高於內在價值嗎?對於廣州金美診斷集團,我們編制了三個相關的項目,您應該評估:
- 風險例如,考慮一下一直存在的投資風險幽靈。我們已經確定了兩個警告信號與廣州金美診斷集團合作(至少1個不容忽視),瞭解他們應該是你投資過程的一部分。
- 未來收益:603882的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他高質量替代產品:你喜歡一個好的全能運動員嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票互動列表,瞭解您可能會錯過的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其針對每隻中國股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
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在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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