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Are Investors Undervaluing COFCO Joycome Foods Limited (HKG:1610) By 48%?
Are Investors Undervaluing COFCO Joycome Foods Limited (HKG:1610) By 48%?
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of COFCO Joycome Foods Limited (HKG:1610) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for COFCO Joycome Foods
The model
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥618.0m | CN¥1.16b | CN¥1.13b | CN¥1.11b | CN¥1.10b | CN¥1.10b | CN¥1.10b | CN¥1.11b | CN¥1.12b | CN¥1.14b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Est @ -3.05% | Est @ -1.67% | Est @ -0.7% | Est @ -0.03% | Est @ 0.45% | Est @ 0.78% | Est @ 1.01% | Est @ 1.17% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 5.5% | CN¥586 | CN¥1.0k | CN¥959 | CN¥894 | CN¥842 | CN¥797 | CN¥759 | CN¥725 | CN¥694 | CN¥666 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥8.0b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.5%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.1b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (5.5%– 1.6%) = CN¥29b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥29b÷ ( 1 + 5.5%)10= CN¥17b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥25b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$3.9, the company appears quite good value at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
SEHK:1610 Discounted Cash Flow July 11th 2022Important assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at COFCO Joycome Foods as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For COFCO Joycome Foods, we've put together three fundamental elements you should further research:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for COFCO Joycome Foods you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does 1610's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我們將通過一種方法來評估中糧卓康食品有限公司(HKG:1610)的內在價值,即將該公司未來的預測現金流折現為今天的價值。為此,我們將利用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。不要被行話嚇跑了,它背後的數學實際上是相當簡單的。
我們要提醒的是,對一家公司進行估值的方法有很多種,與貼現現金流一樣,每種方法在某些情況下都有優缺點。如果你想了解更多關於貼現現金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中詳細閲讀這種計算背後的原理。
查看我們對中糧卓康食品的最新分析
模型
我們使用的是兩階段增長模型,也就是説,我們考慮了公司發展的兩個階段。在初期,公司可能有較高的增長率,而第二階段通常被假設為有一個穩定的增長率。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但當這些估計不可用時,我們會根據上次估計或報告的價值推斷先前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。
一般來説,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,因此我們需要對這些未來現金流的總和進行貼現,以得出現值估計:
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) | CN元6.18億元 | CN元11.6億元 | CN元11.3億元 | CN元11.1億元 | CN元11.億元 | CN元11.億元 | CN元11.億元 | CN元11.1億元 | CN元11.2億元 | CN元11.4億元 |
增長率預估來源 | 分析師x2 | 分析師x2 | Est@-3.05% | Est@-1.67% | Est@-0.7% | Est@-0.03% | Est@0.45% | Est@0.78% | Est@1.01% | Est@1.17% |
現值(CN元,百萬元)貼現5.5% | CN元586元 | CN元10000元 | CN元959元 | CN元894元 | CN元842元 | CN元797元 | CN元759元 | CN元725元 | CN元694元 | CN元666元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.預估的FCF成長率)
10年期現金流現值(PVCF)=CN元80億元
在計算了最初10年內未來現金流的現值後,我們需要計算終止值,它考慮了第一階段之後的所有未來現金流。出於一些原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的國內生產總值增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年期政府債券收益率的5年平均值(1.6%)來估計未來的增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用5.5%的權益成本,將未來現金流貼現到今天的價值。
終端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元1.1b×(1+1.6%)?(5.5%-1.6%)=CN元29b
終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=cN元290億?(1+5.5%)10=CN元170億元
那麼,總價值或權益價值就是未來現金流的現值之和,在這種情況下,現金流是250億加元。最後一步是將股權價值除以流通股數量。與目前3.9港元的股價相比,該公司的價值似乎相當不錯,較目前的股價有48%的折讓。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生很大影響,因此最好將其視為粗略估計,而不是精確到最後一分錢。
聯交所:1610貼現現金流2022年7月11日重要假設
我們要指出,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。您不必同意這些輸入,我建議您自己重新計算並使用它們。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將中糧卓康食品視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是計入債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了5.5%,這是基於槓桿率為0.800的測試版。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。
下一步:
就構建你的投資論點而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,理想情況下,它不會是你為一家公司仔細審查的唯一分析。貼現現金流模型並不是投資估值的全部。相反,它應該被視為“什麼假設需要成立才能讓這隻股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生重大影響。我們能弄清楚為什麼該公司的股價低於內在價值嗎?對於中糧卓康食品,我們總結了你應該進一步研究的三個基本要素:
- 風險:每家公司都有,我們已經發現了中糧卓康食品的2個警示標誌你應該知道。
- 未來收益:1610的增長率與其同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數字。
- 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.應用每天對聯交所的每隻股票進行現金流貼現估值。如果你想找到其他股票的計算方法,只需搜索此處。
對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫。或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性。我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議。它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況。我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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