今天預計將進行首次降息：這是您的交易指南。

Moomoo News Global 參與了話題 · 09/18 08:14

美聯儲計劃在星期三宣布逾四年來的首次降息，這意味著其先前對通脹控制的重點發生了重大轉變。

市場對降息幅度仍然存在分歧。期貨市場顯示，截至周三上午，50個基點降息的機會為63％，較一周前的14％有所增加。25個基點降息的機會為37％。

華爾街和期貨市場對此有不同看法，大多數機構預測將降息25個基點。

摩根史坦利的全球投資委員會認為聯儲會可以實現令人期待已久的軟著陸。該委員會表示：“這種情況可能需要通過每次四分之一的幅度逐步降息，到2025年底降至3.5％。”

然而，有人主張應該進行50個基點的降息。彭博首席美國經濟學家安娜·黃表示：“在我們看來，預測的一致性和風險管理都指向50個基點是正確的選擇。目前對可能進行的重大舉措沒有明確的指引，這指向了25個基點的選擇。”

摩根大通首席經濟學家邁克爾·弗羅利上周告訴CNBC，聯儲會應該在本月降息半個百分點，以迅速達到中央銀行的中性利率約為4％。他說：“我們認為他們應該儘快回到中性水平，這是一個很好的案例。”

聯儲會對降息幅度的決定取決於平衡抑制通脹和支持勞動力市場之間的利弊。Principal Asset Management首席全球策略師Seema Shah表示：“對於聯儲會來說，重點在於決定哪一個風險更重大——如果他們降息50個基點，重新點燃通脹壓力的風險更大，還是如果他們只降息25個基點，威脅經濟衰退的風險更大。”

股本

對於投資者來說，焦點在於降息周期開始時的潛在機會。在上周的聯邦公開市場委員會會議預測中， FOMC會議預覽 | 即將到來的利率削減是否將成為歷史性時刻還是引發落後的擔憂？, we mentioned that post-cut stock performance is uncertain. Economic soft landings typically boost equities, while recessions can lead to market crashes.

Analysts are divided on whether the latest rate cut will trigger a new bull market. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka believes "the Fed will start easing, but more in a reactive way and as a response to weakening growth — this might not be enough to drive the next leg higher." Veteran strategist Jim Paulson, however, contends that the Fed's rate cuts could herald a "brand new bull market."

In our previous analysis, "如果聯邦儲備委員會開始寬鬆經濟政策，哪一個板塊將受益？", we reviewed eight rate-cutting cycles since 1984 and found that defensive sectors have consistently outperformed cyclical sectors in the three to six months following a rate cut. During the early stages of an easing cycle, investors tend to favor defensive stocks to hedge against recession risks as markets grapple with macroeconomic uncertainty.

Consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities have historically performed best in such periods, while cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary, energy, and materials have generally lagged. Notably, this trend has held steady regardless of whether the economy enters a recession.