Those who keep an eye on financial hot topics may have noticed that recently, precious metals and commodities have been developing quite strongly. Correspondingly, related ETFs have also been rising rapidly. Why are commodities worth paying attention to? As an alternative investment, commodities can play a unique role in diversified portfolios. First, commodity prices are typically uncorrelated with traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds...
All Eyes on the Upcoming Fed Meeting With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday. Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year. If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
BelleWeather :
I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes. I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.
BelleWeather :
Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis. They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down. I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment. Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy. You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing. This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.
A review of Friday done on a Saturday and posted Sunday 🙄 I apologize. this started out to be a quick overview but turned into much, much more 😅. This is written over multiple sessions, so the style changes. Hang in there it may be worth the read 🤷 this turned out longer than I had planned, but my best ones often do 😉 Alright... I know, a complete bother. this iam guy 🔴 filling up Moomoo with his memes and junk 😆 so, what's more junk 🤷 I'll give this a go and see if moo all lik...
tpearly :
Much love kind sir! Thank you for your thorough insights, poetry, images, and chart patients. I took a lot of screenshots to study on the desktop as I'm reading this on mobile. Like many others, we look forward to your insights. Christ bless you.
$能源指数ETF-SPDR(XLE.US)$ Long-Term Picture The technical picture for the energy sector shows that the price action for this area of the market is near an important inflection point. Notice how the price has been consolidating over the past two weeks. This is an example of the markets indecisiveness over the direction of oil prices. The price sits just beneath the resistance of a long-term downward price channel. Will we see a break...
$WTI原油主连(2407)(CLmain.US)$ Tensions in the Red Sea The tensions in the Red Sea seem to be escalating. We are seeing constant news stories about freighters being attacked by huthi militia groups and explosions at Red Sea ports. The Iranian military is even stepping up their military presence in the Red Sea. Iranians are sympathetic to the huthi forces, so this will only exacerbate the problem. How long will the conflict last? I have seen...
SpyderCall楼主MadGuineaPig:
sounds good to me. Just loke today, shipping companies have already had a very strong couple of months. This trend could very well continue.
$美国原油基金ETF(USO.US)$ Some major selling rook place after we saw the price dip below our major technical level I spoke of yesterday. Shorts are raking it in with oils prices dropping so much. Crude has dropped well over 15% since I called out the bearishness in oil markets over a month ago. Stay tuned for more opportunities like this one. Bad economic conditions worldwide have been killing oil demand. All of the bad economic ne...
$WTI原油主连(2407)(CLmain.US)$ Multiple Bearish Timeframes On just about every timeframe or any chart you look at, the picture for oil just looks bearish. Crude's price action has continued to fall below major support zones despite an ongoing Middle Eastern conflict. Missed Short Opportunity My previous comments mentioned price support near the 200 moving average. Once the price dipped below this major moving average, some major selling followed. It...
$WTI原油主连(2407)(CLmain.US)$ Crude's price movements have been showing signs of bearishness the past several weeks. Check out the link below for more info on my bearish thesis. Why Would Anybody Be Bearish on Oil Right Now With all of the geopolitical conflicts taking place around the world it can be difficult to be bearish on oil. Personaly, I was bullish on crude even after the Major selloff that started off the month of October. But as m...
Why are commodities worth paying attention to?
As an alternative investment, commodities can play a unique role in diversified portfolios.
First, commodity prices are typically uncorrelated with traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds...
With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday.
Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year.
If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
$标普油气开采指数ETF-SPDR(XOP.US)$ $雪佛龙(CVX.US)$ $埃克森美孚(XOM.US)$ $瓦莱罗能源(VLO.US)$ $西方石油(OXY.US)$
Alright... I know, a complete bother. this iam guy 🔴 filling up Moomoo with his memes and junk 😆 so, what's more junk 🤷 I'll give this a go and see if moo all lik...
Long-Term Picture
The technical picture for the energy sector shows that the price action for this area of the market is near an important inflection point.
Notice how the price has been consolidating over the past two weeks. This is an example of the markets indecisiveness over the direction of oil prices. The price sits just beneath the resistance of a long-term downward price channel. Will we see a break...
Tensions in the Red Sea
The tensions in the Red Sea seem to be escalating. We are seeing constant news stories about freighters being attacked by huthi militia groups and explosions at Red Sea ports. The Iranian military is even stepping up their military presence in the Red Sea. Iranians are sympathetic to the huthi forces, so this will only exacerbate the problem.
How long will the conflict last?
I have seen...
Some major selling rook place after we saw the price dip below our major technical level I spoke of yesterday.
Shorts are raking it in with oils prices dropping so much. Crude has dropped well over 15% since I called out the bearishness in oil markets over a month ago. Stay tuned for more opportunities like this one.
Bad economic conditions worldwide have been killing oil demand. All of the bad economic ne...
Multiple Bearish Timeframes
On just about every timeframe or any chart you look at, the picture for oil just looks bearish. Crude's price action has continued to fall below major support zones despite an ongoing Middle Eastern conflict.
Missed Short Opportunity
My previous comments mentioned price support near the 200 moving average. Once the price dipped below this major moving average, some major selling followed. It...
Crude's price movements have been showing signs of bearishness the past several weeks. Check out the link below for more info on my bearish thesis.
Why Would Anybody Be Bearish on Oil Right Now
With all of the geopolitical conflicts taking place around the world it can be difficult to be bearish on oil. Personaly, I was bullish on crude even after the Major selloff that started off the month of October. But as m...
Unless, of course, if oil prices quickly spike back up to 52-week highs. Then, we might see more inflation pressure in the data.
$纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ $SPDR道琼斯指数ETF(DIA.US)$ $SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ $能源指数ETF-SPDR(XLE.US)$ $WTI原油主连(2407)(CLmain.US)$ $标普油气开采指数ETF-SPDR(XOP.US)$
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