$iPATH 标普500 VIX短期期货ETN(VXX.US)$The vixx is once again near a yearly low.. with everything bubbling to the surface I’m thinking a spike may be here after the Fed meeting. There are those rare instances where the vixx rises more than the MM’s can bring it down. Today-Friday could be that occurrence? I’m holding a nice chunk of $13.50 calls this week. It is the only thing I think the direction is set.. Good luck all..
All Eyes on the Upcoming Fed Meeting With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday. Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year. If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
BelleWeather :
I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes. I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.
BelleWeather :
Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis. They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down. I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment. Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy. You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing. This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.
Investors may doubt V2X, Inc.'s future revenue performance, contributing to its low P/S ratio. The company's inferior revenue outlook compared to industry average also plays a part. A change of fortune is needed for a higher P/S.
How about starting the new year off with an Update? I get so few out lately, I feel I need to. if nothing else, then keep myself up to date. This will be full of predictions, opinions, charts and maybe some fun 😁 Let's GO. Speaking of go. I had a simple thought. Why not use the same colors on my charts and color code them to make it easy on the reader🤷 it seems logical to me, so here is my simple color code. I worked as a civil engineer, so I'm going to make it easy. ● Bullish. Su...
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TinkerB3ll :
Thank you for sharing and happy new year my friend :)
The Manipulation might..
Should We Be Worried About Inflation?
With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday.
Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year.
If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
S&P
It was EASY MONEY
Hope everyone is ready for next 2 days!
UPDATE 2024
Speaking of go. I had a simple thought. Why not use the same colors on my charts and color code them to make it easy on the reader🤷 it seems logical to me, so here is my simple color code. I worked as a civil engineer, so I'm going to make it easy.
● Bullish. Su...
2023 YTD Total Returns...
Nasdaq 100 $纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ : +52%
S&P 500 $SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ : +24%
Developed ex-US $富时成熟市场ETF-Vanguard(VEA.US)$ : +15%
Small Caps $iShares罗素2000指数ETF(IWM.US)$ : +12%
Gold $SPDR黄金ETF(GLD.US)$ : +11%
REITs $不动产信托指数ETF-Vanguard(VNQ.US)$ : +9%
Emerging Markets $富时新兴市场ETF-Vanguard(VWO.US)$ : +6%
Cash $美国国债1-3月ETF-SPDR(BIL.US)$ : +4.7%
US Bonds $美国全债市ETF-iShares(AGG.US)$ : +4.5%...
Futures are green
Investors would hope to see some good results to shake off last week’s sell off
$标普500指数主连(2406)(ESmain.US)$$纳斯达克100指数主连(2406)(NQmain.US)$$WTI原油主连(2406)(CLmain.US)$$道琼斯指数主连(2406)(YMmain.US)$$ProShares Ultra VIX短期期货ETF(UVXY.US)$$iPATH 标普500 VIX短期期货ETN(VXX.US)$
Futures
It’s gonna be a big week ahead with financial sector, chips sector, and tech sectors kickstarting their earning season
$标普500指数主连(2406)(ESmain.US)$$WTI原油主连(2406)(CLmain.US)$$纳斯达克100指数主连(2406)(NQmain.US)$$标普500指数主连(2406)(ESmain.US)$$ProShares Ultra VIX短期期货ETF(UVXY.US)$$iPATH 标普500 VIX短期期货ETN(VXX.US)$
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