• ZZZZakk :

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• BelleWeather : I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes.
  I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!

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• SpyderCall楼主 BelleWeather: They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.

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• SpyderCall楼主 BelleWeather: So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.

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• BelleWeather : Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?

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• SpyderCall楼主 BelleWeather: They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis.
  They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down.
  I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment.
  Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy.
  You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing.
  This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.

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• BelleWeather : Bull markets tend to last a long time compared to bear, and the interim has only gotten longer in recent decades. I’ve just started trading (was buy and hold only until a friend was successfully swing trading my picks, so I joined in, practicing with crypto, and playing options leading up to earnings, and turned it into a game of making the number go up .) But I think this is a failing of TA - it isn’t meaningful in this context. I am learning that it is very much so moment to moment for entry & exit points, though! There are many reasons that the bull will continue, only fears that it won’t. This is the fun part, I intend to enjoy it.
  (And looking back, market PE isn’t so high compared to that over the past 5-7 years.

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• All Also Taken BelleWeather: swing trading is fun but you don't make much money with it compared to the risk to have to take, and the work you have to do :)

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• BelleWeather All Also Taken: Yes, I actually stopped doing so in crypto when I analyzed and saw how much upside I missed! And it’s a lot of work, true! It helps me to follow along with people who explain things here and in other forums. Helps me guide my thoughts, etc. But mostly I look at volume, liquidity and trend - maybe support and resistance to optimize entry or exit when reallocating capital. And that’s how I swing trade, too, now - use some TA, preferably someone’s I trust more than my own, hahaha, to make changes to a portfolio while preserving the maximum capital. But the sad truth is, I might simply be better off not trading at all. In crypto for certain, I did well, but would have hit all targets had I not missed 250% of gains by swapping tokens and coins. Since I don’t have infinite capital, and am prone to so many mistakes, trading stocks is more a side effect than the plan. Options, I think, are the happy medium, if used as a tool, not a gamble (though I’ve done that too, haha.) They allow shorter time frames and are less subject to certain errors and battling algorithms; the Greeks are fun, too.

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• 105291902 BelleWeather: hi

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