All Eyes on the Upcoming Fed Meeting With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday. Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year. If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
BelleWeather :
I think proper portfolio positioning vis a vis inflation is important. The concern I have is stagflation, so I’m trying to be defensive to that. This is difficult. And timing the market is impossible and crazy-making, so I personally am taking each day as it comes. I don’t think anyone is going to sell off over these concerns, and Powell is not about to fan those flames either!
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
They might not sell over these concerns. But when these variables are present, then any negative catalyst will likely catalyze a selloff. For example, if we get bad rhetoric from Powell next week, then we might see extra volatility. That being said, in the current environment, any selloff will be a good buying opportunity until something breaks in the economy.
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
So far, wages and employment numbers have held up, so stagflation is not a concern until inflation picks back up. With the way oil and gasoline prices have been climbing, we could possibly see a stagflationary environment soon, but not yet. Things are almost perfect in the economic data currently. We are in a goldilocks zone for the Fed right now. And if things get worse, then the Fed has already mentioned cutting rates. That would be even more accomodative for equities as the "Fed Put" will be in play at that point. So, if we do see stagflation, it shouldn't last long as the Fed will accommodate markets when the inflation, wages, or employment situation changes negatively.
BelleWeather :
Agreed on the Goldilocks zone vis a vis the Fed mandate save one issue - the reserve bank balance is almost out - won’t they have to move to correct that?
SpyderCall楼主BelleWeather:
They have been greatly decreasing the balance sheet since march 2022. This is done through selling treasury bonds or mortgage securities. Short-term treasuries, like bills, have been the biggest culprits for the runoff of the balance sheet. This has been unwinding the massive amount of asset purchases since the 2008 financial crisis. They purchased all of these assets back then as a form of quantative easing to boost the economy. Right now, they are selling treasury notes at sky-high yields to provide liquidity to banks essentially. This is putting more liabilities onto the balance sheet, which brings the balance down. I don't think the balance sheet runoff is such a big deal at the moment. Once the economy is showing signs of trouble, then I think we will need to worry about the Fed balance sheet. If they start buying assets, essentially quantative easing, then they might think that there is weakness in the economy. You might think that with the Fed balance falling like it is, then long-term treasuries should be falling along with the balance. But that has not been the case since last November as these treasuries have been climbing. This tells me that the balance sheet is now falling because the Fed is adding liquidity through short-term bond sales, which inject liquidity into the economy, which is good for an economy and equities.
$SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ An Overheated Rally The S&P 500 has been on a very strong rally for several months and is showing no signs of slowing down yet. Investors and analysts alike have been calling for a correction over the past few weeks. The S&P 500 is showing signs of overextended price action and extreme overbought conditions on the weekly candles. These are some of the technical reasons why traders have been cautious recently. But always remember that the mar...
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BelleWeather :
Bull markets tend to last a long time compared to bear, and the interim has only gotten longer in recent decades. I’ve just started trading (was buy and hold only until a friend was successfully swing trading my picks, so I joined in, practicing with crypto, and playing options leading up to earnings, and turned it into a game of making the number go up .) But I think this is a failing of TA - it isn’t meaningful in this context. I am learning that it is very much so moment to moment for entry & exit points, though! There are many reasons that the bull will continue, only fears that it won’t. This is the fun part, I intend to enjoy it. (And looking back, market PE isn’t so high compared to that over the past 5-7 years.
All Also TakenBelleWeather:
swing trading is fun but you don't make much money with it compared to the risk to have to take, and the work you have to do :)
BelleWeatherAll Also Taken:
Yes, I actually stopped doing so in crypto when I analyzed and saw how much upside I missed! And it’s a lot of work, true! It helps me to follow along with people who explain things here and in other forums. Helps me guide my thoughts, etc. But mostly I look at volume, liquidity and trend - maybe support and resistance to optimize entry or exit when reallocating capital. And that’s how I swing trade, too, now - use some TA, preferably someone’s I trust more than my own, hahaha, to make changes to a portfolio while preserving the maximum capital. But the sad truth is, I might simply be better off not trading at all. In crypto for certain, I did well, but would have hit all targets had I not missed 250% of gains by swapping tokens and coins. Since I don’t have infinite capital, and am prone to so many mistakes, trading stocks is more a side effect than the plan. Options, I think, are the happy medium, if used as a tool, not a gamble (though I’ve done that too, haha.) They allow shorter time frames and are less subject to certain errors and battling algorithms; the Greeks are fun, too.
I agree with this Barrons article. The market is absolutely overdue for a correction. This melt-up is getting a bit ridiculous. The market just keeps climbing. That being said, don't sell the rally just yet. Things can stay overbought for a long time. And this rally has been showing no signs of slowing down just yet. Often the biggest moves happen towards the end of a rally. Short positions are getting eaten alive. Even though things are seve...
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Waynewx :
What you said is obvious, the hard part is being able to profit when it happens.
SpyderCall楼主Waynewx:
Timing is the hardest part. And it's everything. After a rally like this, I think the correction will eventually be noticeable enough for everyone to get a piece. Even if it is just a little piece.
$多邻国(DUOL.US)$ Is It Time For a Rebound in Duolingo? Duolingo has had poor performance the past few months compared to other big tech names. More recently, after a roughly 30% correction, the technical picture is starting to look more bullish. Is it time for DUOL to catch some upside? Long-Term Support Notice how the price action is consolidating near a long-term support line that has pushed up the share price for over a year. Also, notice how the price is just ...
SpyderCall楼主FirstStrike Veteran:
The selloff was frightening for sure. I didn't sell anything, though. So all is still good. Unless tomorrow's OpEx causes another selloff.
Here is a classic wedge pattern formation on the Russel 2000. The price action is getting squeezed pretty tight. Watch for the breakout or breakdown soon. $iShares罗素2000指数ETF(IWM.US)$ Today, the Russell performed better than all other major indices. Small caps outperformed in a big way, in fact. Even the mid-cap and micro-cap ETFs greatly outperformed the big 3 indices. Cathy Woods ARK ETF contains a lot of small cap growth companies. Ever ETF outpac...
Continuation of the Rally? Gaotu Techedu experienced a massive rally at the end of the year last year. The run-up in price appeared to be a pump fake, just like you would see in many penny stocks, as the price quickly sold off after the huge spike in price. The price was consolidating in a downward channel for most of Janurary. The price action was neutral but leaning towards the bearish side. More. Recently, the price action is showing signs of bullishneas. You ca...
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MonkeyGee :
Don't know if people are aware of this, but China came in and took down all of the education industry overnight. That started the ball rolling with the collapse of the China stock market. You just can't do that and expect everything to be fine.
SpyderCall楼主MonkeyGee:
Yup, major overhaul of the education industry. I believe china has incorporated something called "Xi Thought," or something like that. Seems fishy
SpyderCall楼主iamiam:
That one has been ripping like crazy! Congrats on that one! I missed that ride. I would have featured that name, but it has just been ripping so hard, and I would hate to influence anybody to jump in right before a pullback. The first pullback after a big rally can be substantial. I figured that GOTU has less risk in the immediate term and still major upside potential.
It looks a little risky as the long-term trend is down. But I believe this is a good investment at these prices. The price action is exiting the diamond pattern in a bullish fashion.
$SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ $SPDR道琼斯指数ETF(DIA.US)$ $纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK.US)$ $新兴市场ETF-iShares(EEM.US)$ $MSCI Inc(MSCI.US)$ $标普500波动率指数(.VIX.US)$ $富时马来西亚指数(.KLSE.MY)$ $恒生指数(800000.HK)$ $恒生科技指数(800700.HK)$
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With interest rates and inflation being the main concern for investors these days, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision coming this Wednesday.
Many analysts are calling for a resurgence in inflation. While the Federal Reserve has been standing by their word, saying that inflation is under control and we are on the path towards rate cuts this year.
If the Fed believes that inflation is no longer...
An Overheated Rally
The S&P 500 has been on a very strong rally for several months and is showing no signs of slowing down yet. Investors and analysts alike have been calling for a correction over the past few weeks.
The S&P 500 is showing signs of overextended price action and extreme overbought conditions on the weekly candles. These are some of the technical reasons why traders have been cautious recently. But always remember that the mar...
That being said, don't sell the rally just yet. Things can stay overbought for a long time. And this rally has been showing no signs of slowing down just yet. Often the biggest moves happen towards the end of a rally.
Short positions are getting eaten alive. Even though things are seve...
Is It Time For a Rebound in Duolingo?
Duolingo has had poor performance the past few months compared to other big tech names. More recently, after a roughly 30% correction, the technical picture is starting to look more bullish. Is it time for DUOL to catch some upside?
Long-Term Support
Notice how the price action is consolidating near a long-term support line that has pushed up the share price for over a year. Also, notice how the price is just ...
The Dollar is Still Technically Bullish
Today was the first day in a while that showed possible dollar weakness. Technically, the dollar is still within its bullish vector that has held up the currency for a couple of months. So there is no urgent need to exit any bull...
SpyderCall : Are We Seeing a Breakout?
$SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ $纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ $SPDR道琼斯指数ETF(DIA.US)$ $新兴市场ETF-iShares(EEM.US)$ $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK.US)$
$iShares罗素2000指数ETF(IWM.US)$
Today, the Russell performed better than all other major indices. Small caps outperformed in a big way, in fact. Even the mid-cap and micro-cap ETFs greatly outperformed the big 3 indices.
Cathy Woods ARK ETF contains a lot of small cap growth companies. Ever ETF outpac...
Gaotu Techedu experienced a massive rally at the end of the year last year. The run-up in price appeared to be a pump fake, just like you would see in many penny stocks, as the price quickly sold off after the huge spike in price.
The price was consolidating in a downward channel for most of Janurary. The price action was neutral but leaning towards the bearish side. More. Recently, the price action is showing signs of bullishneas. You ca...
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