• 73243865 : so what?

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• Silverbat : Inflation will be gone followed by transitional contraction of soft landing.

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• SpyderCall楼主 Silverbat: A soft landing is what I see playing out on the economic data. I think the market is already pricing in the soft landing possibly. But I'm not certain on that.
  One thing that could be a worry is if inflation falls too fast and for too long. this would be very bad for any economy.

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• Silverbat SpyderCall楼主: CPI will be up again after Oct-Nov based on its annual cycle，another 0.5% hike?

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• 73582006 : 前一段时间通货膨胀導致股票跳水

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• SpyderCall楼主 Silverbat: Who knows. Europe, UK, and Australia paused and then hiked again. They haven't signaled a pause yet. However, the Fed has signaled a decrease in interest rates going further, so it will take a big increase in inflation to change that narrative. But anything can happen in these crazy markets

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• iamiam : spoiler, it's 3

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• SpyderCall楼主 iamiam: Who knows. We have been following the Volker era almost to a T since the pandemic. We might as well just keep going.

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• iamiam SpyderCall楼主: the key is housing. it's all about housing. to few houses too many people. rates can not come down. same as the 70s

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• SpyderCall楼主 iamiam: right. that is why home builders numbers are up. they are trying to catch up the the demand. this should effect housing prices. Actually this past economic data showed that housing prices fell more last month than they have fallen in over 30 years. Powell said there should be a housing correction but since the pandemic housing prices have only gone up. This is the first drop in a while and it is a big one. Maybe this is just the tip of the iceburg. I cant call this one but i will be ready for the ride which ever direction it goes.

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• iamiam SpyderCall楼主: I think that's misleading because my area is building houses like crazy and my home value keeps going up. there is no drop on prices here only increases. what that number is reflecting is an exodus from large population centers like California, new York, illinois to lower one's. the problem we have is no one wants to sell here.

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