Ultratech :
people worshipping Trump won't acknowledge how he lashed out at big tech saying how they were doing a lot of bad things. that effected everyones 401K
iamiamUltratech:
if something affects your 401, that's on you. big tech did do a lot of bad things and needed lashed out at. Your take, in general, is lazy and reeks of CNN and victimhood. I'm no Trump fan, but I made nearly 70% returns every year under Trump, including covid year (one of my best). If you trusted someone else with your money and lost, that's on you.
ZnWC :
Oil price will not come down easily when the Russia-Ukraine War continues= inflation will stay longer (til the end of the year). Russia needs the oil revenue to support the war.
Last week, we had - Fed balance sheet reduced again - Employment rate shows that the labour market is still strong, but has signs of slowing down (next point) - Jobless claims came in higher than expectation - OPEC+ reduces oil production, which could put pressure on oil prices This week, we have: - the highly anticipated CPI number (Wed). Last month was 6% - FOMC meeting minutes for previous month (Wed) - Jobless claims again, on thurs - PPI on Thurs - Consumer sentiment o...
Cow Moo-ney楼主Seraphicall:
Haha good question! I don’t know too - it can swing either way. My view is that, macro still looks weak to me, and I’m still leaning somewhat bearish, but sometimes the market doesn’t care about how we think
jackgoh86 :
and it is so confusing to trade nowadays.. last time, bad economic data good for market (hoping fed can pivot soon). now, bad economic data may be bad for market (recession fear).
What a whipsaw day! The Fed raised interest rate by 25 basis points, as most have expected. Just 1 more interest rate hike this year. That said, Powell also shared that the fight against inflation isn’t over yet. Market was a lil choppy at that point but was still doing alright. But when Yellen spoke, the market tanked. She basically said that shareholders of the failed banks are not being protected by the government. She also added that US is not considering a “blanket insurance” fo...
Cow Moo-ney楼主Shuseido:
Yup, I think it’s a couple of things that this lady mentioned that shook the market / caused more fear. First, it’s the shareholders and investors are not protected, which as you have rightfully pointed out, it was already evident that this is the case when SVB collapsed. But perhaps, when a regulator make it so specific, it induced more fear in consumers / investors. Second, she also mentioned about no blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits. This is worse than the first point in my opinion as deposits are always deemed as “safe and guaranteed”. She also then mentioned that they are not looking at raising the $250,000 deposit insurance. I would think the 2nd and 3rd pointers on depositors sent waves of fears into the market. Anyway, yesterday’s closing hours were just knee jerk reaction from the market. Got to watch it the stock movements again tonight. As always.. am waiting to sell Puts again
Cow Moo-ney楼主Shuseido:
Because…charts showing short term strength leh hahaha. That said, ytd had some bearish candles forming when that waterfall happened at the end So will have to see if the support levels hold or not. Trade the charts, not sentiment
SVB could be on the brink of collapsing. If it does not, they have a huge problem to address, and a huge hole to fill. They are facing a potential bank run as consumers’ confidence level dropped. Investors may also dump their shares as the bank announced sale of their shares. The stock is a classic falling knife now. Don’t catch it no matter how cheap it may get in the near term. Let the dust settle. To add on, whatever that has just happened, or going to happen will create ...
instrumental exchange compass Association
My current only question to Fitch is, how many short positions do you have? 😂
The market didn’t tank enough after your first downgrade, and now you’re out to scare the market more? 😆
Meanwhile, VIX is popping!
$摩根大通(JPM.US)$ $摩根大通Alerian MLP指数ETN(AMJ.US)$ $美国银行(BAC.US)$ $SPDR金融行业ETF(XLF.US)$ $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ $苹果(AAPL.US)$ $KBW银行指数(.BKX.US)$ $亚马逊(AMZN.US)$ $花旗集团(C.US)$ $富国银行(WFC.US)$ $纳斯达克100指数主连(2406)(NQmain.US)$ $标普500指数主连(2406)(ESmain.US)$ $标普500波动率指数(.VIX.US)$ $摩根士丹利(MS.US)$ $Enphase Energy(ENPH.US)$ $Lululemon Athletica(LULU.US)$ $百事可乐(PEP.US)$ $麦当劳(MCD.US)$ $惠普(HPQ.US)$ $Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC.US)$
They shared that “the repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management”.
The last time US had a similar downgrade, the stock market fell quite a fair bit. Let’s see what impact it has on the market now.
US futures opened lower today.
$SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ $标普500指数(.SPX.US)$ $纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ $3倍做多纳指ETF-ProShares(TQQQ.US)$ $3倍做空纳指ETF-ProShares(SQQQ.US)$ $道琼斯指数(.DJI.US)$ $纳斯达克100指数(.NDX.US)$ $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ $苹果(AAPL.US)$ $奈飞(NFLX.US)$ $亚马逊(AMZN.US)$ $英特尔(INTC.US)$ $美国超微公司(AMD.US)$ $Meta Platforms(META.US)$ $微软(MSFT.US)$ $谷歌-A(GOOGL.US)$ $Adobe(ADBE.US)$ $英伟达(NVDA.US)$ $投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR(SPLG.US)$ $标普500波动率指数(.VIX.US)$ $美元指数(USDindex.FX)$ $Spotify Technology(SPOT.US)$ $摩根士丹利(MS.US)$ $高盛(GS.US)$ $摩根大通Alerian MLP指数ETN(AMJ.US)$ $摩根大通(JPM.US)$ $Enphase Energy(ENPH.US)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT.US)$ $Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC.US)$
But the Fed has to be careful before anything breaks. Before anything break, let’s all enjoy all these good news that just kept coming in!
$SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ $标普500指数(.SPX.US)$ $摩根大通Alerian MLP指数ETN(AMJ.US)$ $Meta Platforms(META.US)$ $花旗集团(C.US)$ $能源指数ETF-SPDR(XLE.US)$ $SPDR金融行业ETF(XLF.US)$ $花旗集团(C.US)$ $美国银行(BAC.US)$ $摩根士丹利(MS.US)$ $高盛(GS.US)$ $纳斯达克100指数主连(2406)(NQmain.US)$ $奈飞(NFLX.US)$ $KBW银行指数(.BKX.US)$
All said, inflation will become very sticky at one point.
Next up: big banks earnings
$花旗集团(C.US)$ $富国银行(WFC.US)$ $摩根大通(JPM.US)$ $摩根大通Alerian MLP指数ETN(AMJ.US)$ $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ $苹果(AAPL.US)$ $标普500指数(.SPX.US)$ $SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ $纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$ $纳斯达克100指数主连(2406)(NQmain.US)$ $摩根士丹利(MS.US)$ $谷歌-A(GOOGL.US)$ $亚马逊(AMZN.US)$ $Sea(SE.US)$ $奈飞(NFLX.US)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX短期期货ETF(UVXY.US)$ $银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW(KBE.US)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT.US)$ $标普500波动率指数(.VIX.US)$ $Snap Inc(SNAP.US)$ $可口可乐(KO.US)$ $Workday(WDAY.US)$ $AMC院线(AMC.US)$
- Fed balance sheet reduced again
- Employment rate shows that the labour market is still strong, but has signs of slowing down (next point)
- Jobless claims came in higher than expectation
- OPEC+ reduces oil production, which could put pressure on oil prices
This week, we have:
- the highly anticipated CPI number (Wed). Last month was 6%
- FOMC meeting minutes for previous month (Wed)
- Jobless claims again, on thurs
- PPI on Thurs
- Consumer sentiment o...
This is probably the time to weed out the weak banks, the shady ones, the high-risk ones.
Likely there will be more bank headlines this week
$美国银行(BAC.US)$ $第一公民银行股份(FCNCA.US)$ $First Republic Bank(FRC.US)$ $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK.US)$ $花旗集团(C.US)$ $摩根士丹利(MS.US)$ $摩根大通(JPM.US)$ $摩根大通Alerian MLP指数ETN(AMJ.US)$ $特斯拉(TSLA.US)$ $苹果(AAPL.US)$ $SPDR 标普500指数ETF(SPY.US)$ $标普500指数(.SPX.US)$ $纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$
The Fed raised interest rate by 25 basis points, as most have expected. Just 1 more interest rate hike this year. That said, Powell also shared that the fight against inflation isn’t over yet.
Market was a lil choppy at that point but was still doing alright.
But when Yellen spoke, the market tanked. She basically said that shareholders of the failed banks are not being protected by the government. She also added that US is not considering a “blanket insurance” fo...
Various big US banks are trying to save First Republic.
Things are slowly unfolding…
$瑞银(UBS.US)$ $Credit Suisse(CS.US)$ $First Republic Bank(FRC.US)$ $Signature Bank(SBNY.US)$ $SVB Financial(SIVB.US)$ $美国银行(BAC.US)$ $花旗集团(C.US)$ $摩根士丹利(MS.US)$ $摩根大通(JPM.US)$ $摩根大通Alerian MLP指数ETN(AMJ.US)$ $SPDR金融行业ETF(XLF.US)$ $银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW(KBE.US)$
The stock is a classic falling knife now. Don’t catch it no matter how cheap it may get in the near term. Let the dust settle.
To add on, whatever that has just happened, or going to happen will create ...
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