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美联储褐皮书:经济活动适度到温和增长 多数地区物价显著上涨

Fed beige book: moderate to moderate growth in economic activity prices have risen significantly in most areas

新浪美股 ·  Oct 20, 2021 14:08

The Federal Reserve's beige book survey released on Wednesday said US economic activity grew at a "moderate to moderate" rate in September and early October. Prices have risen significantly in most areas, driven by rising demand for goods and raw materials.

Overall, the outlook for recent economic activity remains optimistic, but some regions point to increased uncertainty and more cautious optimism than in previous months, the report said. Some regions have pointed out that economic growth has slowed due to supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and uncertainty over COVID-19 's Delta variant.

The report points out that consumer spending is growing positively in most areas. However, car sales generally declined due to low inventory levels and rising prices. Manufacturing in most regions grew at a moderate to strong rate, while non-manufacturing activity grew at a rate ranging from slight to moderate.

Demand for loans is generally flat to moderate. Residential real estate activity remained unchanged or slowed slightly, but overall the market remained healthy. The situation of agriculture is mixed, and the energy market has not changed much. Overall, the outlook for recent economic activity remains optimistic, but some regions point to increased uncertainty and more cautious optimism than in previous months.

In terms of employment, the report points out that employment has grown at a moderate to moderate rate in recent weeks due to high demand for workers, but labour force growth has been curbed by a shortage of workers.

The supply of labour in transport and technology companies is particularly low, while many retail, hotel and manufacturing companies cut working hours or production because they do not have enough workers. Companies report high turnover as workers switch to other jobs or retire. Child care problems, COVID-19 vaccine regulations and epidemic-related absenteeism are widely believed to be responsible for the problem.

Wage growth is strong in most areas. Companies report raising starting salaries to attract talent and raising salaries for existing employees to retain talent. Many also offer signing and retention bonuses, flexible work schedules or increased vacation time to motivate employees to stay in their jobs.

On the price side, most regions reported a sharp rise in prices due to increased demand for goods and raw materials. Reports of increased input costs due to product scarcity due to supply chain bottlenecks are common throughout the industry. Increased transport and labour restrictions and commodity shortages have also contributed to price pressures. During this period, the prices of steel, electronic components and freight increased significantly.

Many companies have raised their sales prices, indicating that they are better able to pass on cost increases to consumers in the face of strong demand. In addition, expectations for future price growth vary from region to region, with some regions expecting prices to remain high or rising further, while others expect prices to slow over the next 12 months.

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