The global electric vehicle industry faces an imminent threat that its battery supplies could run out as early as 2025, according to a new research report by BofA's global research division.
"our updated battery supply and demand model for electric vehicles shows that the global battery supply for electric vehicles may be 'sold out' between 2025 and 26," the report said. The global battery operation rate of electric vehicles will reach 85%. "
BofA expects global battery shortages to intensify between 2026 and 2030 as the penetration of electric vehicles in all markets continues to rise, reflecting the "increasingly optimistic" outlook for the electric vehicle industry, the report said. BofA Global Research expects global penetration of all electric vehicles, including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, to increase to 23 per cent, 40 per cent and 67 per cent respectively by 2025, 2030 and 2040.
The report added: "based on the capacity announced so far, we expect the global operating rate of electric vehicle batteries to rise to about 121 per cent by 2030, which means another large-scale capital expenditure cycle is likely to occur in the next 2-3 years."
In an optimistic scenario, BofA forecasts that electric vehicle penetration in the US market will rise to about 25 per cent and 50 per cent respectively by 2025 and 2030, compared with a basic forecast of 7 per cent and 20 per cent.