Bullish Coinbase Analyst Has Some Bad News About 2022 -- Barrons.com
Bullish Coinbase Analyst Has Some Bad News About 2022 -- Barrons.com
DJ Bullish Coinbase Analyst Has Some Bad News About 2022 -- Barrons.com
看好DJ的Coinbase分析师对2022年有一些坏消息--Barrons.com
By Avi Salzman
阿维·萨尔兹曼(Avi Salzman)著
An analyst has weighed in on Coinbase Global ahead of its direct public listing on Wednesday, and she's bullish.
一位分析师在Coinbase Global周三直接公开上市之前对其进行了分析，她对此持乐观态度。
But her report also makes a projection that might unsettle some Bitcoin bulls: Next year could bring a new Bitcoin winter when the value of digital coins fall sharply.
但她的报告也做出了一个可能会让一些看涨比特币的人感到不安的预测：明年可能会迎来新的比特币冬天，届时数字硬币的价值将大幅下跌。
MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis initiated coverage of Coinbase with a Buy rating and a $600 one-year price target -- equating to a market cap of $123 billion. She values the company based on expected revenue, giving it a multiple of 18 times 2023 sales. That's not very far off from Square (ticker: SQ), which she calculates trades at 14 times 2022 sales and at 11 times 2023 sales.
MoffettNathanson分析师丽莎·埃利斯(Lisa Ellis)以买入评级和600美元的一年目标价对Coinbase进行了报道--相当于1230亿美元的市值。她根据预期收入对该公司进行估值，使其2023年销售额的倍数达到18倍。这与Square(股票代码：SQ)相距不远，根据她的计算，Square是2022年销售额的14倍，是2023年销售额的11倍。
A reference price for Coinbase's direct listing was set at $250 on Tuesday evening, which would indicate a market cap of $65.3 billion.
周二晚间，Coinbase直接上市的参考价定为250美元，这意味着其市值为653亿美元。
Ellis notes, however, that Coinbase's revenue is closely tied to the overall size of the cryptocurrency market and retail enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. And she expects that market to continue to swing wildly.
然而，埃利斯指出，Coinbase的收入与加密货币市场的整体规模和散户对加密货币的热情密切相关。她预计，这个市场将继续剧烈波动。
Indeed, "it is quite likely that we are currently nearing a peak -- at $1.8 billion, Coinbase's revenues in the first quarter were 40% higher than all of 2020 ($1.3 billion)," she wrote. "To be prudent, we are assuming that the value of cryptocurrencies will continue to be cyclical, so we are assuming Coinbase's 2022 revenues will be more than 35% lower than 2021."
事实上，她写道：“我们很有可能正在接近顶峰--第一季度Coinbase的营收为18亿美元，比2020年全年(13亿美元)高出40%。”“为谨慎起见，我们假设加密货币的价值将继续呈现周期性，因此我们假设Coinbase 2022年的营收将比2021年低35%以上。”
Such a sharp drop in revenue is rare for a fast-growing company, but it only serves to highlight how much Coinbase is dependent on the growth of the broader market. On Tuesday, Bitcoin hit a new high above $63,000.
如此大幅的营收下滑对于一家快速增长的公司来说是罕见的，但这只会突显Coinbase在多大程度上依赖于更广泛市场的增长。周二，比特币创下6.3万美元以上的新高。
Coinbase investors might look to the exits if the crypto market struggles. "At this point, we don't know how well the equity markets will stomach this level of volatility in Coinbase's performance," she wrote.
如果密码市场陷入困境，Coinbase投资者可能会考虑退出。她写道：“在这一点上，我们不知道股市能在多大程度上承受Coinbase业绩的这种波动。”
Ellis estimates that the total value of the crypto market will fall to $1.38 trillion in 2022, implying a 30% drop from current levels. Ellis did not respond to an email asking what her private targets might be for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
埃利斯估计，到2022年，密码市场的总价值将降至1.38万亿美元，这意味着将比目前水平下降30%。埃利斯没有回复一封电子邮件，询问她的比特币和以太的私人目标可能是什么。
The drop in crypto market will be short-lived, however, with the market cap more than doubling the following year to $3.65 trillion, she projects. And by 2026, Ellis expects the market cap to expand to $11 trillion.
然而，她预计，密码市场的下跌将是短暂的，第二年市值将翻一番以上，达到3.65万亿美元。埃利斯预计，到2026年，市值将扩大到11万亿美元。
"This outlook for an approximately 36% through-cycle compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrywide crypto trading volumes is the primary driver of our Coinbase forecast," she wrote. Ellis expects Coinbase will grow its assets under management about in line with the broader crypto market.
她写道：“整个行业密码交易量的整个周期复合年增长率(CAGR)约为36%的前景是我们Coinbase预测的主要驱动力。”埃利斯预计，Coinbase管理的资产将与更广泛的密码市场保持一致。
Write to avi.salzman@barrons.com
写信给avi.salzman@Barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道琼通讯社
April 13, 2021 17:18 ET (21:18 GMT)
2021年4月13日美国东部时间17：18(格林尼治标准时间21：18)
DJ Bullish Coinbase Analyst Has Some Bad News About 2022 -- Barrons.com
看好DJ的Coinbase分析师对2022年有一些坏消息--Barrons.com
By Avi Salzman
阿维·萨尔兹曼(Avi Salzman)著
An analyst has weighed in on Coinbase Global ahead of its direct public listing on Wednesday, and she's bullish.
一位分析师在Coinbase Global周三直接公开上市之前对其进行了分析，她对此持乐观态度。
But her report also makes a projection that might unsettle some Bitcoin bulls: Next year could bring a new Bitcoin winter when the value of digital coins fall sharply.
但她的报告也做出了一个可能会让一些看涨比特币的人感到不安的预测：明年可能会迎来新的比特币冬天，届时数字硬币的价值将大幅下跌。
MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis initiated coverage of Coinbase with a Buy rating and a $600 one-year price target -- equating to a market cap of $123 billion. She values the company based on expected revenue, giving it a multiple of 18 times 2023 sales. That's not very far off from Square (ticker: SQ), which she calculates trades at 14 times 2022 sales and at 11 times 2023 sales.
MoffettNathanson分析师丽莎·埃利斯(Lisa Ellis)以买入评级和600美元的一年目标价对Coinbase进行了报道--相当于1230亿美元的市值。她根据预期收入对该公司进行估值，使其2023年销售额的倍数达到18倍。这与Square(股票代码：SQ)相距不远，根据她的计算，Square是2022年销售额的14倍，是2023年销售额的11倍。
Ellis notes, however, that Coinbase's revenue is closely tied to the overall size of the cryptocurrency market and retail enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. And she expects that market to continue to swing wildly.
然而，埃利斯指出，Coinbase的收入与加密货币市场的整体规模和散户对加密货币的热情密切相关。她预计，这个市场将继续剧烈波动。
Indeed, "it is quite likely that we are currently nearing a peak -- at $1.8 billion, Coinbase's revenues in the first quarter were 40% higher than all of 2020 ($1.3 billion)," she wrote. "To be prudent, we are assuming that the value of cryptocurrencies will continue to be cyclical, so we are assuming Coinbase's 2022 revenues will be more than 35% lower than 2021."
事实上，她写道：“我们很有可能正在接近顶峰--第一季度Coinbase的营收为18亿美元，比2020年全年(13亿美元)高出40%。”“为谨慎起见，我们假设加密货币的价值将继续呈现周期性，因此我们假设Coinbase 2022年的营收将比2021年低35%以上。”
Such a sharp drop in revenue is rare for a fast-growing company, but it only serves to highlight how much Coinbase is dependent on the growth of the broader market. On Tuesday, Bitcoin hit a new high above $63,000.
如此大幅的营收下滑对于一家快速增长的公司来说是罕见的，但这只会突显Coinbase在多大程度上依赖于更广泛市场的增长。周二，比特币创下6.3万美元以上的新高。
Coinbase investors might look to the exits if the crypto market struggles. "At this point, we don't know how well the equity markets will stomach this level of volatility in Coinbase's performance," she wrote.
如果密码市场陷入困境，Coinbase投资者可能会考虑退出。她写道：“在这一点上，我们不知道股市能在多大程度上承受Coinbase业绩的这种波动。”
Ellis estimates that the total value of the crypto market will fall to $1.38 trillion in 2022, implying a 30% drop from current levels. Ellis did not respond to an email asking what her private targets might be for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
埃利斯估计，到2022年，密码市场的总价值将降至1.38万亿美元，这意味着将比目前水平下降30%。埃利斯没有回复一封电子邮件，询问她的比特币和以太的私人目标可能是什么。
The drop in crypto market will be short-lived, however, with the market cap more than doubling the following year to $3.65 trillion, she projects. And by 2026, Ellis expects the market cap to expand to $11 trillion.
然而，她预计，密码市场的下跌将是短暂的，第二年市值将翻一番以上，达到3.65万亿美元。埃利斯预计，到2026年，市值将扩大到11万亿美元。
"This outlook for an approximately 36% through-cycle compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrywide crypto trading volumes is the primary driver of our Coinbase forecast," she wrote. Ellis expects Coinbase will grow its assets under management about in line with the broader crypto market.
她写道：“整个行业密码交易量的整个周期复合年增长率(CAGR)约为36%的前景是我们Coinbase预测的主要驱动力。”埃利斯预计，Coinbase管理的资产将与更广泛的密码市场保持一致。
Write to avi.salzman@barrons.com
写信给avi.salzman@Barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道琼通讯社
April 13, 2021 20:04 ET (00:04 GMT)
2021年4月13日美国东部时间20：04(格林尼治标准时间00：04)
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