As you might know, BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$24m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.11 some 27% larger than what the analysts had predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for BlackSky Technology

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering BlackSky Technology are now predicting revenues of US$110.0m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.36 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$111.5m and losses of US$0.31 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a notable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target fell 15% to US$2.75per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic BlackSky Technology analyst has a price target of US$4.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that BlackSky Technology's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 13% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 46% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that BlackSky Technology is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of BlackSky Technology's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BlackSky Technology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for BlackSky Technology going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with BlackSky Technology (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.