Analysts Are Updating Their Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ:DVAX) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ:DVAX) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$51m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.07 some 110% larger than what the analysts had predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Dynavax Technologies

Following the latest results, Dynavax Technologies' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$284.9m in 2024. This would be a substantial 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 20% to US$0.057 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$288.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.23 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$24.67, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Dynavax Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$29.00 and the most bearish at US$20.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Dynavax Technologies' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 28% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 43% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 19% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Dynavax Technologies is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$24.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dynavax Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Dynavax Technologies you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.