S&P Global Mobility: April Auto Sales to Sustain Spring Volume Push
S&P Global Mobility: April Auto Sales to Sustain Spring Volume Push
While expected to be below the March 2024 volume total, new light vehicle sales volume in April should sustain some of the spring selling momentum
尽管预计将低于2024年3月的总销量，但4月份的新轻型汽车销量将维持春季的部分销售势头
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., April 29, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility projects new light vehicle sales volume in April 2024 to reach 1.34 million units. While this unadjusted volume total would be a drop from both the month prior (down 7%) and year-ago (down 2%) levels, two fewer selling days than March 2024 and one less than April 2023 more than account for any potential declines. This volume would translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.0 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), just the third time in the past twenty-four months the metric has reached this level.
密歇根州绍斯菲尔德，2024年4月29日 /PRNewswire/ — 标普全球交通预计，2024年4月轻型汽车的新销量将达到134万辆。尽管未经调整的总销量将比上月（下降7％）和去年同期（下降2％）的水平都有所下降，但与2024年3月相比，销售天数减少了两天，比2023年4月少了一个销售天数，比2023年4月多了一个销售天数，这是任何潜在下降的原因。这一销量预计将转化为1,600万辆的销售速度（经季节性调整后的年增长率：SAAR），这是该指标在过去二十四个月中第三次达到这一水平。
Advancing production levels set the stage for continued incentives and inventory, potentially enticing new buyers
生产水平的提高为持续的激励措施和库存奠定了基础，有可能吸引新买家
"With an auto sales environment currently defined by the mixed signals of advancing inventory and incentives, together with affordability concerns from high interest rates and still high vehicle prices, the anticipated April result reflects that consumers are still in the market for a new vehicle," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
S&P Global Mobility首席分析师克里斯·霍普森表示：“目前汽车销售环境的定义是库存增加和激励措施的混合信号，再加上高利率和仍然居高不下的汽车价格带来的可负担性问题，因此4月份的预期业绩反映出消费者仍在市场上购买新车。”
Retail advertised inventory continues its steady rise, and stands now at 2.97 million units, an increase of 65% vs. last year. While most dealer inventory comprises 2024 and some 2025 model year vehicles, pockets of older inventory remain.
零售广告库存继续稳步增长，目前为297万件，比去年增长65％。尽管大多数经销商库存包括2024年和部分2025年车型的车辆，但仍有一些较旧的库存。
"Consumers in the market for a new vehicle are increasingly able to find opportunities for discounts coming from the availability of more vehicles in dealer inventory," said Matt Trommer, associate director at S&P Global Mobility.
标普全球出行副董事马特·特罗默表示：“新车市场上的消费者越来越能够从经销商库存中获得更多汽车的折扣机会。”
The supply side of the auto equation is continuing to show signs of advancement, hinting at sustained growth for inventories and incentives moving through 2024. According to Joe Langley, associate director at S&P Global Mobility, "The outlook for North American light vehicle production for 2024 was revised higher by 1.5% to 16.0 million units on demand resilience and more importantly on stronger production results, indicating minimized impact of supply chain issues."
汽车方程式的供应方面继续显示出进展的迹象，这表明到2024年，库存和激励措施将持续增长。标普全球交通副董事乔·兰利表示：“2024年北美轻型汽车产量前景上调了1.5％，至1,600万辆，这要归因于需求弹性，更重要的是由于生产业绩的强劲，这表明供应链问题的影响已降至最低。”
"Advancing production levels set the stage for incentives and inventory to continue to develop, potentially enticing new vehicle buyers who remain on the sidelines due to higher interest rates," said Hopson. "It will be a bumpy ride and month-to-month sales volatility is likely. S&P Global Mobility projects calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume of 16.0 million units, a 3% increase from 2023."
霍普森说：“产量水平的提高为激励措施和库存的持续发展奠定了基础，有可能吸引因利率上升而处于观望状态的新车购买者。”“这将是一个坎坷的旅程，可能会出现逐月的销售波动。标普全球交通预计，2024日历年的轻型汽车销量为1,600万辆，比2023年增长3％。”
|
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales | ||||
|
Apr 24 (Est) |
Mar 24 |
Apr 23 | ||
|
Total Light Vehicle |
Units, NSA |
1,338,000 |
1,438,012 |
1,357,844 |
|
In millions, SAAR |
16.0 |
15.5 |
15.7 | |
|
Light Truck |
In millions, SAAR |
12.9 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
|
Passenger Car |
In millions, SAAR |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
|
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | ||||
|
美国轻型车销量 | ||||
|
4月24日（美国东部标准时间） |
3 月 24 日 |
4 月 23 日 | ||
|
轻型车辆总数 |
单位，国家安全局 |
1,338,000 |
1,438,012 |
1,357,844 |
|
以百万计，SAAR |
16.0 |
15.5 |
15.7 | |
|
轻型卡车 |
以百万计，SAAR |
12.9 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
|
乘用车 |
以百万计，SAAR |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
|
资料来源：标普全球流动性（美国东部标准时间），美国经济分析局 | ||||
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. April BEV share is expected to reach 7%, similar to March, as Telsa volumes are likely to be reflective the first quarter levels. BEV share is expected to advance over the next several periods though, supported by the pending the launches of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for market introductions over the first half of 2024, as well as advancing Tesla Model 3 and Cybertruck sales.
从长远来看，电池电动汽车（BEV）销售的持续发展仍然是标普全球交通轻型汽车销售预测的假设。在短期内，预计会出现一些逐月波动。4月份的电动汽车份额预计将达到7％，与3月份相似，因为Telsa的销量可能会反映第一季度的水平。但是，在计划于2024年上半年上市的雪佛兰Equinox EV、本田Prologue和菲亚特500e等汽车以及特斯拉Model 3和Cybertruck销量的推动下，电动汽车的份额预计将在未来几个时期内上涨。
About S&P Global Mobility
关于标普全球交通
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
在S&P Global Mobility，我们从无与伦比的汽车数据中提供宝贵的见解，使我们的客户能够预测变化并坚定地做出决策。我们的专业知识可帮助他们优化业务，吸引合适的消费者并塑造出行的未来。我们打开了汽车创新的大门，揭示了当今的购买模式，并帮助客户规划未来的新兴技术。
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit .
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米歇尔·卡尔弗
标普全球交通
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
来源 S&P 全球交通