Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas on Tuesday noted both product and market issues as he slashed target price and FY24 earnings estimates for EV giant $Tesla (TSLA.US)$.
Analyst Rating: The analyst cut the target price from $345 to $320 while maintaining an 'overweight' rating.
Tesla Thesis: In a note, the analyst noted the several downsides plaguing Tesla at the minute including dwindling EV demand, older product line-up as compared to other automakers, heavy competition and price war in China, and not the least, the increasing popularity of hybrids over battery electric vehicles in the company's primary market of U.S..
"If there was ever a time for Tesla to potentially post a GAAP EBIT loss in the auto business, it may be this year," Jonas wrote.
The analyst said that he expects the EV giant's first-half results for the year will fail to meet expectations with GAAP operating margins in the 2-3% range. After taking a severe hit on profitability, Jonas expects Tesla to pull back on the price cuts it has been employing to increase sales and instead shift focus to defending margins and cash flow.
The analyst also altered his estimates for FY24.
Change In Estimates: Jonas decreased his unit volume estimate for FY24 to under 2 million units, implying just over 10% growth YoY. The analyst now forecasts an auto gross margin of 11.4% for the year, down from his previous estimate of 13.2%.
But despite this, the analyst remains overweight on Tesla as he continues to deem it an AI company. However, for the EV giant to get credit as an AI company, it must first stabilize its earnings in the auto business, he said.
"We do not believe Tesla will get credit as an Al company as long as core auto earnings are being revised down. This process may take a few more quarters to see through, over which time our $100 bear case may be 'in play," he wrote.
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摩根士丹利分析師亞當·喬納斯週二下調了電動汽車巨頭的目標價格和24財年的收益預期，指出了產品和市場問題 $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$。
分析師評級：分析師將目標價格從345美元下調至320美元，同時維持 “增持” 評級。
特斯拉論文：分析師在一份報告中指出了目前困擾特斯拉的幾個缺點，包括電動汽車需求的減少、與其他汽車製造商相比產品陣容較舊、中國激烈的競爭和價格戰，以及同樣重要的是，混合動力汽車比電池電動汽車在該公司的主要美國市場越來越受歡迎。
喬納斯寫道：“如果特斯拉有機會公佈汽車業務的GAAP息稅前利潤虧損，那可能是今年。”
這位分析師表示，他預計這家電動汽車巨頭今年的上半年業績將無法達到預期，GAAP營業利潤率在2-3％之間。在盈利能力受到嚴重打擊之後，喬納斯預計，特斯拉將撤回其爲增加銷售而採取的降價措施，轉而將重點轉移到捍衛利潤率和現金流上。
該分析師還修改了他對24財年的估計。
估計值的變化：喬納斯將24財年的單位銷量估計下調至200萬輛以下，這意味着同比增長略高於10％。這位分析師現在預測今年的汽車毛利率爲11.4％，低於他之前估計的13.2％。
但儘管如此，這位分析師仍然對特斯拉持過高態度，因爲他仍然認爲特斯拉是一家人工智能公司。但是，他說，這家電動汽車巨頭要獲得人工智能公司的信貸，就必須首先穩定其汽車業務的收益。
“我們認爲，只要核心汽車收益下調，特斯拉就不會作爲一家鋁業公司獲得信貸。他寫道，這一過程可能還需要幾個季度才能看清，在此期間，我們的100美元熊市可能正在 “發揮作用”。
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