Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Janus Henderson Group plc (NYSE:JHG) After Its Annual Results

It's been a good week for Janus Henderson Group plc (NYSE:JHG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 2.5% to US$30.08. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$2.1b coming in 2.1% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$2.37, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Janus Henderson Group

Following the latest results, Janus Henderson Group's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.21b in 2024. This would be an okay 5.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$2.36, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.43 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$29.28, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Janus Henderson Group at US$38.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Janus Henderson Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.2% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.05% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.8% per year. So although Janus Henderson Group's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Janus Henderson Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Janus Henderson Group (including 1 which is concerning) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.