Goldilocks 2024: Investors Increasingly Optimistic On Profits Outlook For Next Year
Goldilocks 2024: Investors Increasingly Optimistic On Profits Outlook For Next Year
Global investors are pushing into higher risk strategies as rate cut expectations and forecasts for a less severe economic downturn raised the appetite for higher equity allocations in their portfolios.
随着降息预期和对不太严重的经济衰退的预测提高了投资组合中对增加股票配置的兴趣，全球投资者正在推动更高的风险策略。
Despite signs of slowing economic growth in recent weeks, only a net 26% of investors polled in Bank of America's monthly Fund Manager's Survey thought profits would worsen in the next 12 months — the most optimistic profit outlook since February 2022.
尽管最近几周有经济增长放缓的迹象，但在美国银行《基金经理人月度调查》中接受调查的投资者中，净只有26％的人认为未来12个月的利润将恶化——这是自2022年2月以来最乐观的利润前景。
This drove an increase in equity allocation, up 13 percentage points to 15% overweight — the highest portfolio allocation of equities in since February 2022. The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$, an exchange traded fund that has tracked the senior U.S. equity index, gained 24% in 2023.
这推动了股票配置的增加，增持了13个百分点至15％，这是自2022年2月以来股票投资组合的最高配置。那个 $SPDR 标普500指数ETF (SPY.US)$追踪美国高级股票指数的交易所交易基金在2023年上涨了24％。
Goldilocks Favors Stocks But Bearish On Commodities
金发姑娘偏爱股票但看跌大宗商品
The so-called Goldilocks scenario for the economy references the traditional children's tale and represents growth that is neither too hot to encourage inflation and rate hikes, nor too cold to provoke recession.
所谓的 “金发姑娘” 经济情景参考了传统的儿童故事，所代表的增长既不会太热而无法鼓励通货膨胀和加息，也不会太冷而无法引发衰退。
BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett said: "Sentiment on 'Goldilocks '24' is the most upbeat since January 2022, with an increase in equity overweights, and most bearish on commodities — relative to bonds — since March 2009."
美国银行投资策略师迈克尔·哈特奈特表示：“'金发姑娘'24'的情绪是自2022年1月以来最乐观的，股票增持幅度增加，而大宗商品相对于债券的看跌幅度最大。”
However, investors said some equity trades were now looking overcrowded — particularly long positions on the Magnificent Seven stocks, which include $Apple (AAPL.US)$, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ — the last of which is the year's best-performing stock on the S&P 500 this year, with a massive 236% gain.
但是，投资者表示，一些股票交易现在显得人满为患，尤其是科技七巨头股票的多头头寸，其中包括 $苹果 (AAPL.US)$， $微软 (MSFT.US)$ 和 $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ — 其中最后一只是今年标准普尔500指数中表现最好的股票，涨幅为236％。
Rate Cuts Will Favor Bonds
降息将有利于债券
On policy, fund managers were overwhelmingly optimistic the Federal Reserve's cycle of rate hikes was over, with 89% expecting lower rates in the first few months of 2024.
在政策方面，基金经理对美联储的加息周期已经结束持压倒性的乐观态度，89％的人预计2024年前几个月将降低利率。
The biggest winners from Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2024 were seen as technology stocks and bonds. The $Pimco Etf Trust Total Return Active Exch-Traded Fund (BOND.US)$ is up 7.2% in the past two months.
2024年上半年美联储降息的最大赢家被视为科技股和债券。那个 $PIMCO总回报主动型ETF (BOND.US)$ 在过去两个月中上涨了7.2％。
A net 50% of investors polled in the survey said they expected weaker economic growth over the next 12 months, but more than 70% predicted a soft landing.
在调查中接受调查的投资者中，净有50％的人表示，他们预计未来12个月经济增长将疲软，但超过70％的人预测将出现软着陆。