Ex-Fed Economist Says to Resist Impulsive Moves on Inflation and Jobs Data: 'It Might Not Be Real'
Ex-Fed Economist Says to Resist Impulsive Moves on Inflation and Jobs Data: 'It Might Not Be Real'
Recent concerns have arisen about the reliability of market-moving statistics such as inflation and job data. The reported figures, it seems, might not accurately reflect the economic reality.
最近，人们开始担心通货膨胀和就业数据等市场波动统计数据的可靠性。看来，报告的数字可能无法准确反映经济现实。
What Happened: Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm expressed concern about the situation. "They're not giving us an accurate picture. And again, where one would start to see this first is the precision of the estimates slips, and you get movements from months to months that aren't reality," she said, reported Business Insider.
发生了什么：前美联储经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆对情况表示担忧。“他们没有给我们准确的画面。再说一遍，人们首先会开始看到这一点的是估计值下滑的精度，而从几个月到几个月的变化是不现实的。” 据《商业内幕》报道，她说。
Sahm's comments highlight the significant decline in the response rates for surveys tracking key economic indicators. The consumer price index survey response rate dropped from 67% in 2016 to 53% in 2023, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
萨姆的评论突显了追踪关键经济指标的调查的回复率大幅下降。美国劳工统计局报告称，消费者物价指数调查的回复率从2016年的67％下降到2023年的53％。
Similarly, response rates for job opening surveys have plummeted from 66% to 31% over the same period. These falling rates are causing unease in markets that rely on these statistics to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move.
同样，同期职位空缺调查的回复率从66％下降到31％。利率下降使依赖这些统计数据来衡量美联储下一步行动的市场感到不安。
See Also: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Rally Keeps Weekend Momentum Intact — Analyst Sees Apex Crypto Flashing Signal That Sparked 400% Surge
另见：比特币、以太坊、狗狗币的涨势保持了周末的势头不变——分析师认为，Apex Crypto 的闪烁信号引发了400％的飙升
Goldman Sachs highlighted in a recent report that these falling response rates can amplify uncertainty about the economy. It pointed out that job openings have been revised by an average of 180,000 over the last few years, which is more than triple the typical revision six years ago.
高盛在最近的一份报告中强调，这些下降的回应率会加剧经济的不确定性。它指出，在过去几年中，职位空缺平均修改了18万个，是六年前通常修订的三倍多。
Sahm cautioned investors from overreacting to the market uncertainties.
萨姆提醒投资者不要对市场的不确定性反应过度。
"Don't overreact to some sharp turn, because it might not be real or it could turn back really fast," she said.
她说：“不要对急转弯反应过度，因为它可能不是真实的，也可能很快回头。”
Despite the decline in response rates, government statistics are still regarded as the highest quality data available. Gerald Perrins, a top official overseeing consumer price data at BLS, reassured that "our response rates are relatively high considering the large sample sizes that we do."
尽管答复率有所下降，但政府统计数据仍被视为现有的最高质量数据。负责监督劳工统计局消费者价格数据的高级官员杰拉尔德·佩林斯保证：“考虑到样本量大，我们的回应率相对较高。”
Read Next: Crypto Market Braces For Dramatic Shift: Analyst's Predictions About Solana, Chainlink, Avalanche Send Shockwaves
继续阅读：加密市场为戏剧性转变做好了准备：分析师对 Solana、Chainlink、Avalanche 的预测带来了冲击
Image Via Shutterstock
图片来自 Shutterstock
Engineered by Benzinga Neuro, Edited by Pooja Rajkumari
由 Benzinga Neuro 设计，由 Pooja Rajkumari 编辑
The GPT-4-based Benzinga Neuro content generation system exploits the extensive Benzinga Ecosystem, including native data, APIs, and more to create comprehensive and timely stories for you. Learn more.
基于GPT-4的Benzinga Neuro内容生成系统利用广泛的Benzinga生态系统，包括原生数据、API等，为您创建全面而及时的故事。了解更多。