David Einhorn's Portfolio Prepared For 'Higher Oil Prices' That Could 'Cause A Recession'
David Einhorn's Portfolio Prepared For 'Higher Oil Prices' That Could 'Cause A Recession'
David Einhorn, billionaire co-founder and president of Greenlight Capital, has his portfolio heavy on the material and energy sectors.
亿万富翁联合创始人兼绿光资本总裁大卫·爱因霍恩的投资组合主要集中在材料和能源领域。
In his third quarter letter to investors, Einhorn said, "higher oil prices would squeeze the consumer and likely cause a recession."
艾因霍恩在第三季度给投资者的信中说：“油价上涨将挤压消费者，并可能导致衰退。”
This might explain Einhorn's swift move towards gold as a safe haven in light of recessionary concerns. Greenlight Capital's stake in GLD (representing safe-haven gold) increased by 89.22% this quarter validating Einhorn's bullishness on the yellow metal.
鉴于经济衰退的担忧，这也许可以解释艾因霍恩迅速转向黄金作为避风港的原因。Greenlight Capital在本季度持有的GLD（代表避险黄金）的股份增加了89.22％，这证实了艾因霍恩对黄金的看涨态度。
Material Sector Dominates
材料行业占主导地位
Per the hedge fund's third-quarter 13F filing, materials command a good 39.31% of his portfolio.
根据该对冲基金第三季度的13F文件，材料占其投资组合的39.31％。
Material sector stocks and ETFs such as $Green Brick Partners (GRBK.US)$, $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$, $Teck Resources (TECK.US)$ and $Graphic Packaging (GPK.US)$ feature among his top holdings. Since Q3 2017, the hedge fund mogul has boosted his allocation in the materials sector from 6.44% to 39.31%.
材料板块股票和交易所买卖基金，例如 $Green Brick Partners (GRBK.US)$， $SPDR黄金ETF (GLD.US)$， $泰克资源有限公司 (TECK.US)$ 和 $Graphic Packaging (GPK.US)$ 是他最受欢迎的藏品之一。自2017年第三季度以来，这位对冲基金大亨已将其在材料领域的配置从6.44％提高到39.31％。
Green Brick, a diversified homebuilding and land development company, is currently Einhorn's no. 1 holding. Greenlight Capital's portfolio is heavily dominated by GRBK, comprising 29.10%, resulting in the firm owning 24.32% of the company.
Green Brick是一家多元化的房屋建筑和土地开发公司，目前是艾因霍恩的第一大控股公司。Greenlight Capital的投资组合主要由GRBK主导，占29.10％，因此该公司拥有该公司24.32％的股份。
GLD's allocation in the portfolio has increased from 1.91% to 4.20%, while TECK's share has risen from 2.66% to 3.58%.
GLD在投资组合中的配置已从1.91％增加到4.20％，而TECK的份额已从2.66％上升到3.58％。
Why David Einhorn Is Bullish on Oil
为什么大卫·爱因霍恩看好石油
"Having sold down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and having adopted a policy that discourages drilling for oil, the U.S. has left itself quite vulnerable to higher oil prices. Globally, storage is at a multi-year low," Einhorn said in his Q3 2023 investor letter.
“在出售了战略石油储备并采取了不鼓励石油钻探的政策之后，美国很容易受到油价上涨的影响。在全球范围内，存储量处于多年低点。” 艾因霍恩在2023年第三季度的投资者信中说。
"Our positive net exposure is expressed almost entirely through the energy sector, and we have added a large macro position via futures and options that will benefit from much higher crude oil prices throughout 2024."
“我们的正净敞口几乎完全体现在能源行业，我们通过期货和期权增加了大量宏观头寸，这将受益于整个2024年原油价格的大幅上涨。”
Energy Stocks to the Rescue
能源股出手救援
Einhorn's investment strategy in the energy sector has exhibited a wave-like pattern, alternating between phases of increased and decreased allocations. The current increasing wave started in Q4 2021 when a mere 3.60% of the portfolio was allocated to the energy sector. This has now grown to 23.84%.
艾因霍恩在能源领域的投资策略呈现出波浪状的模式，在增加和减少分配的阶段之间交替出现。当前的增长浪潮始于2021年第四季度，当时仅有3.60％的投资组合分配给了能源行业。现在，这一比例已增长到23.84％。
Greenlight Capital's primary investments in the energy sector consist of $CONSOL Energy (CEIX.US)$, $Southwestern Energy (SWN.US)$, $Weatherford International (WFRD.US)$, and $Seadrill (SDRL.US)$, with CEIX being the second-largest holding in their portfolio at 14.33%.
绿光资本在能源领域的主要投资包括 $CONSOL Energy (CEIX.US)$， $美国西南能源 (SWN.US)$， $Weatherford国际 (WFRD.US)$，以及 $Seadrill (SDRL.US)$，CEIX是其投资组合中的第二大持股，占14.33％。
Currently, SWN and SDRL make up 3.70% and 0.92% of the portfolio, respectively, with Einhorn significantly increasing his stakes in both this quarter.
目前，SWN和SDRL分别占投资组合的3.70％和0.92％，而艾因霍恩在本季度的股份均大幅增加。
$DHT Holdings (DHT.US)$, an independent crude oil tanker company, was a new addition to the portfolio this quarter at 1.18% allocation.
$DHT控股 (DHT.US)$是一家独立的原油油轮公司，是本季度投资组合中的新成员，配置为1.18％。