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Option Trade Benefits From Bunge Stock's Continued Lackluster Pace
Option Trade Benefits From Bunge Stock's Continued Lackluster Pace
Bunge is an agribusiness and food ingredient company dedicated to improving the global food supply chain with raw and processed agricultural commodities and specialized food ingredients. Bunge stock has been holding support regions while the company is selling off several assets to cut costs.
Combined with this news and a Commitment of Traders report that shows several large funds lowering their exposure to agribusiness accumulation for the next 30 to 60 days, I suspect Bunge stock will continue to hold in the current range.
That opens a trading strategy that allows us to collect premium while we wait for the chart to resume an upward trend. Bunge stock holds a Composite Rating of 80, and the industry group rank is 129th out of 197. This type of rating works well for our plans with options here, as we are not looking for a strong stock.
The chart is rangebound since late October and now near the top of the range. Noticing also that we have declining volume with the last rise in price, it is reasonable to assume there is a stall of upward motion on the horizon.
As with many positions, I look for ways to generate revenue while I wait on price action to come into a favorable place, and this is within that strategy.
We will be using the short iron condor. This formation is a combination of a short call spread and a short put spread, which delivers premium while the stock chops within a range.
The Cboe Market Volatility Index (or VIX) continues to fade into levels not seen since 2021 and shows little sign of lifting, but the low reading still concerns me and will make me size a position smaller than I normally would.
Identify Key Chart Levels
First, a look at key chart levels. Sellers sit firmly near the 105 region, buyers near 94. The price trend is mixed, so ranges are likely to expand and then return to congestion.
Let's look at a combination of revenue-generation options. My preference is always to sell premium in low-volatility readings, like when the VIX is below 35. Once the VIX moves above 35 to 40, we must reconsider risk because the range of prices will expand.
This options strategy works well when we are looking at a stock that has a sideways weekly trend.
Looking at the February option chains, let's build the short call spread first. This part of the position assumes prices will not head north.
Bunge Stock Trade Setup
- Sell to open the Bunge stock Feb. 17 monthly 105 calls and buy to open the Feb. 17 monthly 110 calls.
And now the short put spread: This part of the position assumes prices will not expand south.
- Sell to open the Bunge stock Feb. 17 monthly 95 puts and buy to open the Feb. 17 monthly 90 puts.
At this writing, the premium for February's expiration is $2.25. The goal would be to allow this premium to erode to 50% of its value and then remove the exposure if the price is at the top or bottom of the range with increasing volume.
The risk lies in a rise over 105 or a fade below 95 at the expiration date. If this happens, the obligation will be the difference between the $5 spread (the distance between the spread strikes) and how much we collected ($2.25), which works out to $2.75.
Although this is the maximum risk, we will carefully watch the price movement to make sure that we do not expand into the maximum-loss event.
Possible Scenarios For Bunge Stock Option Trade
What could happen:
- The stock moves within and potentially beyond the range but returns to rest above 95 and below 105 by expiration. This yields the full profit.
- The stock moves into my 50% profit line – when the position is worth around $1.12 – and I exit the trade.
- The stock rallies and moves over 105 with volume for more than three days. This means we must exit because the chart is in a breakout.
- The stock fades and moves below 95 with volume for more than three days. This means we must exit because the chart is in a breakdown.
The short iron condor is a common tool for time decay to create revenue stream. However, I rarely hold these into the expiration. Instead, I will look for 40%-50% of the position to erode and then exit. More than often, this allows me to consistently manage my profit.
You can find me on Twitter at @AnneMarieTrades.
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邦奇是一家农业企业和食品配料公司,致力于改善全球食品供应链,提供生鲜和加工的农产品和专业食品配料。Bunge的股票一直持有支撑区,而该公司正在出售几项资产以削减成本。
再加上这一消息,以及交易员承诺的一份报告显示,几只大型基金在未来30至60天内降低了对农业企业积累的敞口,我怀疑邦吉的股票将继续保持在当前的区间。
这开启了一种交易策略,允许我们在等待图表恢复上升趋势的同时收取溢价。Bunge股票的综合评级为80,行业集团排名在197位中排名第129位。这种类型的评级很适合我们在这里有选择权的计划,因为我们不是在寻找一只强劲的股票。
该图表自10月下旬以来一直在区间内波动,目前接近区间的顶部。还要注意的是,随着上一次价格上涨,成交量正在下降,有理由认为地平线上会出现上升的停滞。
与许多头寸一样,我在等待价格走势进入有利位置的同时,也在寻找创造收入的方法,这符合这一策略。
我们将使用短铁秃鹰。这种形式是空头看涨价差和空头看跌期权价差的组合,当股票在一定范围内波动时,这种价差提供溢价。
芝加哥期权交易所市场波动率指数(VIX)继续跌至2021年以来未曾见过的水平,几乎没有回升的迹象,但低读数仍令我担忧,并将使我的头寸规模低于正常水平。
确定关键图表级别
首先,我们来看看关键的图表级别。卖家牢牢地坐在105区域附近,买家坐在94区域附近。价格走势喜忧参半,因此区间可能扩大,然后重回拥堵状态。
让我们来看看几种创收选择的组合。我更倾向于在低波动性读数中出售溢价,比如当波动率指数低于35时。一旦波动率指数升破35至40,我们必须重新考虑风险,因为价格区间将扩大。
当我们看到一只每周走势横盘的股票时,这种期权策略效果很好。
看看2月份的期权链,让我们先建立空头看涨价差。这部分头寸假设价格不会向北上涨。
捆绑股票交易设置
- 卖出打开邦奇股票2月17日的每月105次调用,买入打开2月17日的每月110次调用。
现在的空头头寸价差:这部分头寸假设价格不会向南扩展。
- 2月17日卖出打开邦奇股票每月95个看跌期权,买入打开2月17日每月90个卖出。
在撰写本文时,2月份到期的溢价为2.25美元。目标是允许这一溢价侵蚀至其价值的50%,然后如果价格处于成交量增加的区间的顶部或底部,则消除风险敞口。
风险在于到期时升至105以上或回落至95以下。如果发生这种情况,债务将是5美元价差(价差罢工之间的距离)与我们收集的金额(2.25美元)之间的差额,这相当于2.75美元。
虽然这是最大的风险,但我们将仔细观察价格走势,以确保我们不会扩大到最大损失事件。
捆绑股票期权交易的可能情景
可能发生的情况:
- 该股在区间内波动,并有可能超出区间,但到期时回到95上方和105下方。这就产生了全部利润。
- 这只股票进入了我50%的利润线--当头寸价值约1.12美元--我退出了交易。
- 该股反弹并在三天多的时间里成交量超过105。这意味着我们必须退出,因为图表处于突破状态。
- 该股下跌,并在三天多的时间里成交量低于95。这意味着我们必须退出,因为图表已经崩溃了。
短铁秃鹰是时间衰变创造收入流的常见工具。然而,我很少持有这些到到期。相反,我会寻找40%-50%的头寸来侵蚀,然后退出。通常,这让我能够始终如一地管理我的利润。
你可以在推特上找到我@AnneMarieTrades。
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在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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