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Does This Valuation Of Kornit Digital Ltd. (NASDAQ:KRNT) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?
Does This Valuation Of Kornit Digital Ltd. (NASDAQ:KRNT) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?
Does the December share price for Kornit Digital Ltd. (NASDAQ:KRNT) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Kornit Digital
The Model
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | -US$2.00m | US$8.00m | US$15.5m | US$25.7m | US$37.7m | US$50.2m | US$62.2m | US$73.0m | US$82.3m | US$90.2m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 93.36% | Est @ 65.95% | Est @ 46.76% | Est @ 33.32% | Est @ 23.92% | Est @ 17.34% | Est @ 12.73% | Est @ 9.51% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5% | -US$1.8 | US$6.8 | US$12.1 | US$18.5 | US$25.1 | US$30.8 | US$35.2 | US$38.1 | US$39.5 | US$39.9 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$244m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.5%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$90m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.5%– 2.0%) = US$1.4b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.4b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)10= US$626m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$870m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$23.5, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqGS:KRNT Discounted Cash Flow December 8th 2022The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kornit Digital as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.004. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For Kornit Digital, we've put together three fundamental elements you should explore:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Kornit Digital that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does KRNT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
科尼特数码有限公司(纳斯达克代码:KRNT)12月份的股价反映了它的真实价值吗?今天,我们将通过提取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到今天的价值来估计股票的内在价值。在这种情况下,我们将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。这听起来可能很复杂,但实际上很简单!
对公司的估值可以有很多种方式,因此我们要指出,贴现现金流并不适用于每一种情况。如果你想了解更多关于贴现现金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中详细阅读这种计算背后的原理。
查看我们对Kornit Digital的最新分析
模型
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来一美元的价值低于现在的一美元,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | --200万美元 | 800万美元 | 1550万美元 | 2570万美元 | 3770万美元 | 5020万美元 | 6220万美元 | 7300万美元 | 8230万美元 | 9020万美元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@93.36% | Est@65.95% | Est@46.76% | Est@33.32% | Est@23.92% | Est@17.34% | Est@12.73% | Est@9.51% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现8.5% | --1.8美元 | 6.8美元 | 12.1美元 | 18.5美元 | 25.1美元 | 30.8美元 | 35.2美元 | 38.1美元 | 39.5美元 | 39.9美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=2.44亿美元
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率2.0%的5年平均水平。我们以8.5%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=9,000万美元×(1+2.0%)?(8.5%-2.0%)=14亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=14亿美元?(1+8.5%)10=6.26亿美元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为8.7亿美元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。相对于目前23.5美元的股价,在撰写本文时,该公司似乎相当昂贵。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
NasdaqGS:KRNT贴现现金流2022年12月8日假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Kornit Digital视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.5%,这是基于杠杆率为1.004的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
虽然贴现现金流的计算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要评估的众多因素之一。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。相反,贴现现金流模型的最佳用途是测试某些假设和理论,看看它们是否会导致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。为什么内在价值低于当前股价?对于Kornit Digital,我们总结了你应该探索的三个基本元素:
- 风险例如,我们发现Kornit Digital的1个警告标志在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
- 未来收益:与同行和更广泛的市场相比,KRNT的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只美国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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