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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Pactiv Evergreen Inc. (NASDAQ:PTVE)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Pactiv Evergreen Inc. (NASDAQ:PTVE)
How far off is Pactiv Evergreen Inc. (NASDAQ:PTVE) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Check out our latest analysis for Pactiv Evergreen
Crunching The Numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$164.1m | US$161.8m | US$161.3m | US$162.0m | US$163.4m | US$165.3m | US$167.7m | US$170.4m | US$173.3m | US$176.4m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x2 | Est @ -0.29% | Est @ 0.39% | Est @ 0.87% | Est @ 1.2% | Est @ 1.43% | Est @ 1.6% | Est @ 1.71% | Est @ 1.79% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.6% | US$150 | US$135 | US$122 | US$112 | US$103 | US$95.2 | US$88.1 | US$81.6 | US$75.7 | US$70.3 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.0b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$176m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (9.6%– 2.0%) = US$2.3b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.3b÷ ( 1 + 9.6%)10= US$936m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.0b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$11.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqGS:PTVE Discounted Cash Flow November 27th 2022Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Pactiv Evergreen as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.493. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Pactiv Evergreen, there are three fundamental aspects you should look at:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Pactiv Evergreen (of which 2 are a bit concerning!) you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does PTVE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
纳斯达克距离其内在价值还有多远?使用最新的财务数据,我们将通过估计公司未来的现金流并将其贴现到现值,来看看股票的定价是否公平。在这种情况下,我们将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。它真的没有那么多东西,尽管它可能看起来相当复杂。
我们要提醒的是,对一家公司进行估值的方法有很多种,与贴现现金流一样,每种方法在某些情况下都有优缺点。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。
查看我们对Pactive Evergreen的最新分析
仔细研究这些数字
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的增长率。一般来说,第一阶段是较高增长阶段,第二阶段是较低增长阶段。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年为企业带来的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来的一美元不如现在的一美元有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 1.641亿美元 | 1.618亿美元 | 1.613亿美元 | 1.62亿美元 | 1.634亿美元 | 1.653亿美元 | 1.677亿美元 | 1.704亿美元 | 1.733亿美元 | 1.764亿美元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x4 | 分析师x2 | Est@-0.29% | Est@0.39% | Est@0.87% | Est@1.2% | Est@1.43% | EST@1.6% | Est@1.71% | Est@1.79% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@9.6% | 150美元 | 135美元 | 122美元 | 112美元 | 103美元 | 95.2美元 | 88.1美元 | 81.6美元 | 75.7美元 | 70.3美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=10亿美元
第二阶段也被称为终端价值,这是企业在第一阶段之后的现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.0%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用9.6%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=1.76亿美元×(1+2.0%)?(9.6%-2.0%)=23亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=23亿美元?(1+9.6%)10=9.36亿美元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流是20亿美元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。相对于目前11.7美元的股价,该公司在撰写本文时似乎接近公允价值。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
NasdaqGS:PTVE贴现现金流2022年11月27日重要假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Pactiv Evergreen视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了9.6%,这是基于杠杆率为1.493的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
就构建你的投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它只是你需要为一家公司评估的众多因素之一。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于Pactiv Evergreen,你应该关注三个基本方面:
- 风险:每家公司都有,我们已经发现了PActiv Evergreen的4个警告标志(其中两个有点令人担忧!)你应该知道。
- 未来收益:与同行和更广泛的市场相比,PTVE的增长率如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用程序每天对纳斯达克指数的每一只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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