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Is There An Opportunity With Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603599) 46% Undervaluation?
Is There An Opportunity With Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603599) 46% Undervaluation?
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603599) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical
Crunching The Numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥1.73b | CN¥1.92b | CN¥2.08b | CN¥2.22b | CN¥2.35b | CN¥2.47b | CN¥2.58b | CN¥2.68b | CN¥2.79b | CN¥2.89b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 13.93% | Est @ 10.71% | Est @ 8.46% | Est @ 6.88% | Est @ 5.78% | Est @ 5% | Est @ 4.46% | Est @ 4.08% | Est @ 3.82% | Est @ 3.63% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8% | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.3k | CN¥1.2k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥15b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.8%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.9b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.8%– 3.2%) = CN¥53b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥53b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= CN¥23b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥38b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥31.3, the company appears quite good value at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SHSE:603599 Discounted Cash Flow November 17th 2022Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.937. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical, we've compiled three important elements you should further examine:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 603599's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SHSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将介绍一种评估安徽广信农化股份有限公司(上海证券交易所代码:603599)内在价值的方法,即预测其未来现金流,然后将其折现为今天的价值。实现这一点的一种方法是使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。这听起来可能很复杂,但实际上很简单!
我们要提醒的是,对一家公司进行估值的方法有很多种,与贴现现金流一样,每种方法在某些情况下都有优缺点。如果你想了解更多关于贴现现金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中详细阅读这种计算背后的原理。
查看我们对安徽广信农化的最新分析
仔细研究这些数字
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的增长率。一般来说,第一阶段是较高增长阶段,第二阶段是较低增长阶段。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来一美元的价值低于现在的一美元,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | 净额17.3亿元 | CN元1.92B元 | CN元20.8亿元 | CN元22.2亿元 | CN元23.5亿元 | 净额24.7亿元 | CN元25.8亿元 | CN人民币26.8亿元 | 净额27.9亿元 | CN元28.9亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@13.93% | Est@10.71% | Est@8.46% | Est@6.88% | Est@5.78% | EST@5% | Est@4.46% | Est@4.08% | Est@3.82% | Est@3.63% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@8.8% | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.5K | CN元1.5K | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.3K元 | CN元1.2K |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN元150亿元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。我们以8.8%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元2.9b×(1+3.2%)?(8.8%-3.2%)=CN元53b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元530亿?(1+8.8%)10=CN元230亿元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总股权价值,在本例中为38亿加元。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。与目前31.3元的股价相比,该公司的价值似乎相当不错,较目前的股价有46%的折让。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
上海证交所:603599贴现现金流2022年11月17日重要假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将安徽广信农化视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作折现率,而不是计入债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.8%,这是基于杠杆率为0.937的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但它不应该是你在研究一家公司时唯一考虑的指标。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。为什么内在价值高于当前股价?对于安徽广信农化,我们整理了三个重要元素,你应该进一步研究一下:
- 风险例如,我们发现安徽广信农化2个警示信号(1有点令人不快!)在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
- 未来收益:603599的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对上交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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