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Are Investors Undervaluing Sunwoda Electronic Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300207) By 29%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Sunwoda Electronic Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300207) By 29%?
Does the October share price for Sunwoda Electronic Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300207) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Sunwoda ElectronicLtd
Crunching The Numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | -CN¥1.48b | CN¥1.11b | CN¥1.83b | CN¥2.69b | CN¥3.60b | CN¥4.48b | CN¥5.29b | CN¥6.02b | CN¥6.65b | CN¥7.20b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 65.41% | Est @ 46.75% | Est @ 33.68% | Est @ 24.54% | Est @ 18.14% | Est @ 13.66% | Est @ 10.52% | Est @ 8.32% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 11% | -CN¥1.3k | CN¥908 | CN¥1.4k | CN¥1.8k | CN¥2.2k | CN¥2.5k | CN¥2.6k | CN¥2.7k | CN¥2.7k | CN¥2.6k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥18b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 11%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥7.2b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (11%– 3.2%) = CN¥101b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥101b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= CN¥37b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥55b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥23.2, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 29% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SZSE:300207 Discounted Cash Flow October 31st 2022Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sunwoda ElectronicLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.347. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Sunwoda ElectronicLtd, there are three fundamental aspects you should consider:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Sunwoda ElectronicLtd (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does 300207's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
森沃达电子股份有限公司(SZSE:300207)10月份的股价反映了它的真实价值吗?今天,我们将通过预测公司未来的现金流并将其贴现回今天的价值来估计股票的内在价值。这将使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型来实现。在你认为你将无法理解它之前,只需继续阅读!它实际上比你想象的要简单得多。
对公司的估值可以有很多种方式,因此我们要指出,贴现现金流并不适用于每一种情况。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
请参阅我们对森沃达电子有限公司的最新分析
仔细研究这些数字
我们使用所谓的两阶段模型,也就是说,公司的现金流有两个不同的增长率。一般来说,第一阶段是较高增长阶段,第二阶段是较低增长阶段。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来的一美元不如现在的一美元有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | -CN人民币14.8亿元 | CN元11.1亿元 | 净额18.3亿元 | 净额26.9亿元 | CN人民币36.0亿元 | CN元44.8亿元 | CN元52.9亿元 | CN元60.2亿元 | CN元66.5亿元 | CN人民币72亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@65.41% | Est@46.75% | Est@33.68% | Est@24.54% | Est@18.14% | Est@13.66% | Est@10.52% | Est@8.32% |
现值(CN元,百万)折现@11% | -CN元13万元 | CN元908元 | CN元1.4K元 | CN元1.8K元 | CN元2.2K元 | CN元2.5K | CN元2.6K元 | CN元2.7K | CN元2.7K | CN元2.6K元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN元180亿元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。我们以11%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元7.2b×(1+3.2%)?(11%-3.2%)=CN元101b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=cn元101b?(1+11%)10=CN元370亿元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,未来现金流的现值为550亿加元。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。与当前23.2元的股价相比,该公司的股价似乎略有低估,较目前的股价有29%的折让。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
深圳证券交易所:300207贴现现金流2022年10月31日重要假设
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将Sunwoda ElectronicLtd视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了11%,这是基于杠杆率为1.347的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
虽然贴现现金流的计算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要评估的众多因素之一。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于Sunwoda ElectronicLtd.,你应该考虑三个基本方面:
- 风险:每家公司都有,我们已经发现了森沃达电子有限公司的3个警告标志(其中1个有点令人担忧!)你应该知道。
- 未来收益:300207的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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