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A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Hengan International Group Company Limited (HKG:1044)
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Hengan International Group Company Limited (HKG:1044)
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Hengan International Group Company Limited (HKG:1044) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Hengan International Group
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥3.18b | CN¥3.50b | CN¥3.02b | CN¥2.96b | CN¥2.94b | CN¥2.94b | CN¥2.95b | CN¥2.97b | CN¥3.00b | CN¥3.04b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ -0.73% | Est @ -0.05% | Est @ 0.43% | Est @ 0.77% | Est @ 1% | Est @ 1.17% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7% | CN¥3.0k | CN¥3.0k | CN¥2.4k | CN¥2.2k | CN¥2.0k | CN¥1.9k | CN¥1.8k | CN¥1.6k | CN¥1.5k | CN¥1.4k |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥21b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥3.0b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (7.7%– 1.6%) = CN¥50b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥50b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= CN¥24b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥45b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$34.8, the company appears about fair value at a 18% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
SEHK:1044 Discounted Cash Flow October 4th 2022Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Hengan International Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.246. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Hengan International Group, we've put together three fundamental elements you should assess:
- Risks: Be aware that Hengan International Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
- Future Earnings: How does 1044's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在本文中,我们将通过估计恒安国际集团有限公司(HKG:1044)的未来现金流量并将其贴现到其现值来评估该公司的内在价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。不要被行话吓跑了,它背后的数学实际上是相当简单的。
我们要提醒的是,对一家公司进行估值的方法有很多种,与贴现现金流一样,每种方法在某些情况下都有优缺点。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对恒安国际集团的最新分析
一步一步地计算
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要对这些未来现金流的总和进行贴现,以得出现值估计:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元31.8亿元 | CN元35亿元 | CN元30.2B元 | 净额29.6亿元 | 净额29.4亿元 | 净额29.4亿元 | CN元29.5亿元 | 净额29.7亿元 | CN人民币3.0亿元 | CN元30.4亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师X5 | 分析师X5 | 分析师x1 | 分析师x1 | Est@-0.73% | Est@-0.05% | Est@0.43% | Est@0.77% | Est@1% | Est@1.17% |
现值(CN元,百万元)贴现7.7% | CN元3.0K | CN元3.0K | CN元2.4K | CN元2.2K元 | CN元2.0K | CN元1.9万元 | CN元1.8K元 | CN元1.6K元 | CN元1.5K | CN元1.4K元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN元210亿元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率1.6%的5年平均水平。我们以7.7%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现至今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元3.0B×(1+1.6%)?(7.7%-1.6%)=CN元50B
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元500B?(1+7.7%)10=240亿元
那么,总价值或权益价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,未来现金流的现值为45亿元人民币。为了得到每股内在价值,我们将其除以总流通股数量。与目前34.8港元的股价相比,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价有18%的折扣。然而,估值是不精确的工具,更像是一台望远镜--移动几度,就会到达另一个星系。一定要记住这一点。
联交所:1044贴现现金流2022年10月4日重要假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将恒安国际视为潜在股东,因此折现率使用股权成本,而不是计入债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了7.7%,这是基于杠杆率为1.246的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
下一步:
虽然贴现现金流的计算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要评估的众多因素之一。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,如果终端价值增长率稍有调整,可能会极大地改变整体结果。对于恒安国际集团,我们总结了你应该评估的三个基本要素:
- 风险:请注意,恒安国际集团正在展示我们的投资分析中的2个警告信号,你应该知道关于……
- 未来收益:1044的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只香港股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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