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Earnings Are Growing at Xinyi Energy Holdings (HKG:3868) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects
Earnings Are Growing at Xinyi Energy Holdings (HKG:3868) but Shareholders Still Don't Like Its Prospects
Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. For example, the Xinyi Energy Holdings Limited (HKG:3868) share price is down 47% in the last year. That falls noticeably short of the market decline of around 26%. Longer term investors have fared much better, since the share price is up 17% in three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 39% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 19% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
With the stock having lost 8.0% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
Check out our latest analysis for Xinyi Energy Holdings
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Xinyi Energy Holdings share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 9.9%. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.
Xinyi Energy Holdings' dividend seems healthy to us, so we doubt that the yield is a concern for the market. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn't really explain the share price drop. Unless, of course, the market was expecting a revenue uptick.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
SEHK:3868 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 3rd 2022Xinyi Energy Holdings is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Xinyi Energy Holdings in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Xinyi Energy Holdings the TSR over the last 1 year was -44%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Xinyi Energy Holdings shareholders are down 44% for the year (even including dividends), falling short of the market return. The market shed around 26%, no doubt weighing on the stock price. Investors are up over three years, booking 10% per year, much better than the more recent returns. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Xinyi Energy Holdings has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
We will like Xinyi Energy Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
投资者可以通过购买指数基金来接近平均市场回报。虽然个别股票可能是大赢家,但更多的股票无法产生令人满意的回报。例如,信义能源控股有限公司(HKG:3868)去年股价下跌47%。这明显低于约26%的市场跌幅。长期投资者的表现要好得多,因为股价在三年内上涨了17%。股价最近加速下跌,在过去三个月里下跌了39%。当然,在此期间,这一股价走势很可能受到了大盘19%跌幅的影响。
鉴于该公司股价在过去一周下跌了8.0%,我们有必要看看它的业务表现,看看是否有任何危险信号。
查看我们对信义能源控股的最新分析
在他的文章中格雷厄姆和多德斯维尔的超级投资者沃伦·巴菲特描述了股价并不总是理性地反映一家企业的价值。一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的,那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
不幸的是,在信义能源控股股价下跌的12个月里,它的每股收益(EPS)实际上提高了9.9%。当然,这种情况可能会暴露出之前对增长的过度乐观。
公平地说,股价似乎并没有反映出每股收益的增长。因此,也有必要检查一下其他一些指标。
信义能源控股的股息在我们看来似乎是健康的,因此我们怀疑收益率是否令市场担忧。从我们看到的情况来看,营收相当持平,所以这并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。当然,除非市场预期收入会上升。
您可以在下图中看到收益和收入随时间的变化(单击图表查看确切的值)。
联交所:3868盈利及收入增长2022年10月3日信义能源控股是一只知名的股票,有大量的分析师报道,这表明它对未来的增长有一定的可见性。你可以在这里看到分析师对信义能源控股的预测互动未来利润预估图表。
那股息呢?
除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑总股东回报(TSR)。TSR包括任何剥离或贴现融资的价值,以及任何股息,基于股息再投资的假设。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,TSR往往比股价回报高得多。我们注意到,信义能源控股过去1年的TSR为-44%,好于上文提到的股价回报。而且,猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异是没有好处的!
不同的视角
信义能源控股股东全年累计下跌44%(即使包括股息),不及市场回报。股市下跌了约26%,无疑拖累了股价。投资者在三年多的时间里上涨了10%,比最近的回报率好得多。如果业务保持稳健,最近的抛售可能是一个机会,因此可能值得查看基本面数据,以寻找长期增长趋势的迹象。虽然值得考虑市场状况对股价可能产生的不同影响,但还有其他更重要的因素。例如,承担风险-信义能源控股公司2个警告标志(还有一个不容忽视)我们认为你应该知道这一点。
如果我们看到一些大的内部收购,我们会更喜欢信义能源控股。在我们等待的时候,看看这个免费最近有大量内幕收购的成长型公司名单。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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