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1.4% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for Sinotrans (HKG:598) Shareholders Over That Period
1.4% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for Sinotrans (HKG:598) Shareholders Over That Period
For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Sinotrans Limited (HKG:598), since the last five years saw the share price fall 49%. And it's not just long term holders hurting, because the stock is down 35% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 13% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 19% in the same timeframe.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Sinotrans isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Sinotrans
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Sinotrans actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 7.4% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn't really explain the share price drop. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
SEHK:598 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 2nd 2022It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Sinotrans
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Sinotrans, it has a TSR of -33% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 26% in the twelve months, Sinotrans shareholders did even worse, losing 29% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Sinotrans better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Sinotrans that you should be aware of.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对许多人来说,投资的主要目的是创造比整体市场更高的回报。但几乎可以肯定的是,每个投资者都会同时拥有表现优异和表现不佳的股票。在这一点上,一些股东可能会质疑他们在中国外运有限公司(HKG:598),自过去五年股价下跌49%以来。受害的不只是长期持有者,因为该股去年下跌了35%。股价最近加速下跌,在过去三个月里下跌了13%。然而,有人可能会辩称,价格受到了大盘的影响,大盘在同一时间段内下跌了19%。
如果以过去一周为标准,投资者对中外运的情绪并不乐观,所以让我们看看基本面和股价之间是否存在错配。
查看我们对中外运的最新分析
用巴菲特的话说,“船只将在世界各地航行,但平坦的地球协会将蓬勃发展。市场上的价格和价值之间将继续存在巨大的差异……”一种不完美但简单的方法来考虑市场对一家公司的看法是如何改变的,那就是将每股收益(EPS)的变化与股价走势进行比较。
不幸的是,在股价下滑的五年里,中外运的每股收益(EPS)实际上以每年7.4%的速度增长。考虑到股价的反应,人们可能会怀疑,每股收益不是这段时间内业务表现的良好指南(可能是因为一次性的亏损或收益)。或者,增长预期在过去可能是不合理的。
由于每股收益增长和股价下跌之间缺乏相关性,因此有必要看看其他指标,试图了解股价走势。
我们注意到,股息一直保持健康,因此这并不能真正解释股价下跌的原因。我们目前还不清楚为什么股价会下跌,但进一步的研究可能会提供一些答案。
该公司的收入和收益(随着时间的推移)如下图所示(点击查看具体数字)。
联交所:598盈利及收入增长2022年10月2日可能值得注意的是,首席执行官的薪酬低于类似规模公司的中位数。但是,尽管CEO的薪酬总是值得检查的,但真正重要的问题是,公司能否在未来实现收益增长。这免费显示分析师预测的报告应该有助于您形成对中外运的看法
那股息呢?
重要的是要考虑任何给定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报。虽然股价回报只反映股价的变动,但TSR包括股息的价值(假设股息再投资),以及任何折价集资或分拆所带来的利益。公平地说,TSR为支付股息的股票提供了更完整的图景。以中国外运为例,它在过去5年的总资产收益率为-33%。这超过了我们之前提到的它的股价回报。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
不同的视角
虽然大盘在过去12个月里下跌了约26%,但中外运股东的表现更糟,跌幅为29%(甚至包括股息)。然而,这可能只是因为股价受到了更广泛的市场紧张情绪的影响。也许有必要关注基本面,以防出现良机。遗憾的是,去年的业绩为糟糕的表现画上了句号,股东们在五年内面临着每年6%的总亏损。一般来说,股价长期疲软可能是一个坏信号,尽管反向投资者可能会希望研究这只股票,希望它能好转。跟踪股价的长期表现总是很有趣的。但为了更好地了解中国外运,我们还需要考虑许多其他因素。例如,我们已经确定中国外运的1个警告标志这一点你应该知道。
对于那些想要找到赢得投资这免费最近有内幕收购的不断增长的公司名单可能就是合适的选择。
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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