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These 4 Measures Indicate That GATX (NYSE:GATX) Is Using Debt In A Risky Way
These 4 Measures Indicate That GATX (NYSE:GATX) Is Using Debt In A Risky Way
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for GATX
What Is GATX's Net Debt?
As you can see below, GATX had US$5.99b of debt, at June 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$180.9m, its net debt is less, at about US$5.81b.
NYSE:GATX Debt to Equity History September 26th 2022A Look At GATX's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that GATX had liabilities of US$194.0m due within a year, and liabilities of US$7.35b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$180.9m in cash and US$165.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$7.20b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the US$3.21b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, GATX would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 1.5 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.5 hit our confidence in GATX like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Fortunately, GATX grew its EBIT by 4.8% in the last year, slowly shrinking its debt relative to earnings. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if GATX can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, GATX saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
To be frank both GATX's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like GATX has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with GATX (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一些人说,作为投资者,考虑风险的最佳方式是波动性,而不是债务,但巴菲特曾说过一句名言:波动性远非风险的同义词。因此,当你评估一家公司的风险有多大时,聪明的投资者似乎知道债务--通常涉及破产--是一个非常重要的因素。重要的是GATX公司(纽约证券交易所代码:GATX)确实背负着债务。但股东是否应该担心它的债务使用情况?
债务在什么时候是危险的?
一般来说,只有当一家公司无法轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为一个真正的问题,无论是通过筹集资金还是用自己的现金流。资本主义的一部分是“创造性破坏”的过程,破产的企业被银行家无情地清算。然而,一种更常见(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低价筹集新的股本,从而永久性地稀释股东。当然,在企业中,债务可以是一个重要的工具,特别是资本密集型企业。当考虑一家企业使用了多少债务时,首先要做的是把现金和债务放在一起看。
查看我们对GATX的最新分析
GATX的净债务是多少?
如下所示,截至2022年6月,GATX的债务为59.9亿美元,与前一年大致相同。您可以单击图表查看更多详细信息。然而,由于它拥有1.809亿美元的现金储备,其净债务较少,约为58.1亿美元。
纽约证券交易所:GATX债转股历史2022年9月26日看关贸总协定的负债
最新的资产负债表数据显示,GATX有1.94亿美元的债务在一年内到期,73.5亿美元的债务在一年后到期。作为抵消,它有1.809亿美元的现金和1.653亿美元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收账款的总和还要多72亿美元。
这一赤字给这家市值32.1亿美元的公司蒙上了一层阴影,就像一个庞然大物耸立在凡人之上。因此,我们肯定认为股东需要密切关注这一事件。归根结底,如果GATX的债权人要求偿还,GATX可能需要进行重大的资本重组。
我们通过查看公司的净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),并计算其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖利息支出(利息覆盖)的容易程度,来衡量公司的债务负担与其盈利能力的关系。因此,我们考虑债务相对于收益,包括折旧和摊销费用。
1.5倍的疲软利息覆盖,以及令人不安的高得令人不安的净债务与EBITDA之比8.5,打击了我们对GATX的信心,就像对肠子的一击。这里的债务负担是巨大的。幸运的是,GATX去年息税前利润增长了4.8%,债务相对于收益缓慢缩小。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是一个起点。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定GATX能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,有必要检查这笔息税前利润中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。在过去的三年中,GATX的自由现金流总额为大幅负值。尽管投资者无疑预计这种情况会在适当的时候逆转,但这显然意味着它使用债务的风险更大。
我们的观点
坦率地说,GATX将息税前利润转换为自由现金流,以及其保持在总负债之上的记录,都让我们对其债务水平感到相当不安。话虽如此,它的息税前利润增长能力并不是那么令人担忧。考虑到上述所有因素,GATX似乎负债累累。虽然一些投资者喜欢这种冒险的投资方式,但这肯定不是我们喜欢的类型。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。为此,您应该了解3个警示标志我们已经发现了GATX(包括1个不应该被忽视的)。
归根结底,关注那些没有净债务的公司往往更好。你可以访问我们的这类公司的特别名单(都有利润增长的记录)。这是免费的。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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