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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of COFCO Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301058)
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of COFCO Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301058)
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of COFCO Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301058) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for COFCO Engineering & Technology
The Method
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥260.7m | CN¥304.6m | CN¥343.5m | CN¥377.6m | CN¥407.4m | CN¥433.9m | CN¥457.9m | CN¥480.1m | CN¥501.0m | CN¥521.2m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 22.68% | Est @ 16.85% | Est @ 12.76% | Est @ 9.91% | Est @ 7.91% | Est @ 6.51% | Est @ 5.53% | Est @ 4.84% | Est @ 4.36% | Est @ 4.02% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1% | CN¥241 | CN¥261 | CN¥272 | CN¥276 | CN¥276 | CN¥271 | CN¥265 | CN¥257 | CN¥248 | CN¥238 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥2.6b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.1%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥521m× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.1%– 3.2%) = CN¥11b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥11b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)10= CN¥5.0b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥7.6b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥14.8, the company appears about fair value at a 0.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SZSE:301058 Discounted Cash Flow September 22nd 2022Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at COFCO Engineering & Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.991. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For COFCO Engineering & Technology, we've put together three fundamental items you should explore:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with COFCO Engineering & Technology .
- Future Earnings: How does 301058's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
今天,我们将介绍一种估算中粮工程技术股份有限公司(SZSE:301058)内在价值的方法,即估算公司未来的现金流并将其折现为现值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。不要被行话吓跑了,它背后的数学实际上是相当简单的。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。如果你想了解更多关于贴现现金流的信息,可以在Simply Wall St.分析模型中详细阅读这种计算背后的原理。
查看我们对中粮工程技术的最新分析
该方法
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元2.607亿元 | 净额3.046亿元 | CN元3.435亿元 | CN元3.776亿元 | 净额4.074亿元 | 净额4.339亿元 | 净额4.579亿元 | CN元4.801亿元 | CN元5.01亿元 | CN元5.212亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@22.68% | Est@16.85% | Est@12.76% | Est@9.91% | Est@7.91% | Est@6.51% | Est@5.53% | Est@4.84% | Est@4.36% | Est@4.02% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@8.1% | CN元241元 | CN元261元 | CN元272元 | CN元276元 | CN元276元 | CN元271元 | CN元265元 | CN元257元 | 人民币248元 | CN元238元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币26亿元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。我们以8.1%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元521M×(1+3.2%)?(8.1%-3.2%)=CN元11b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元11B?(1+8.1%)10=CN元50亿元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为76亿加元。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。相对于目前14.8元的股价,该公司的公允价值似乎比目前的股价有0.6%的折让。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
深圳证券交易所:301058贴现现金流2022年9月22日重要假设
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您自己重新计算并使用它们。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将中粮工程技术视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.1%,这是基于杠杆率为0.991的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
虽然重要的是,在研究一家公司时,DCF计算不应该是唯一的衡量标准。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于中粮工程技术,我们列出了三个你应该探索的基本项目:
- 风险:为此,您应该意识到1个警告标志我们已经发现了中粮工程技术公司。
- 未来收益:301058的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对深交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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