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Is Kerry Properties (HKG:683) A Risky Investment?
Is Kerry Properties (HKG:683) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Kerry Properties Limited (HKG:683) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Kerry Properties
What Is Kerry Properties's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2022 Kerry Properties had HK$60.1b of debt, an increase on HK$45.5b, over one year. However, it does have HK$16.2b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about HK$44.0b.
SEHK:683 Debt to Equity History September 22nd 2022A Look At Kerry Properties' Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Kerry Properties had liabilities of HK$20.1b due within a year, and liabilities of HK$67.0b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had HK$16.2b in cash and HK$3.06b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling HK$67.9b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the HK$23.9b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Kerry Properties would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
As it happens Kerry Properties has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.4 but very strong interest coverage of 308. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Shareholders should be aware that Kerry Properties's EBIT was down 21% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Kerry Properties's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Kerry Properties produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 67% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
To be frank both Kerry Properties's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Kerry Properties's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Kerry Properties has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
伯克希尔哈撒韦的外部基金经理理想汽车·卢直言不讳地说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。因此,当你考虑到任何一只股票的风险有多大时,你需要考虑债务可能是显而易见的,因为太多的债务可能会让一家公司倒闭。重要的是嘉里置业有限公司(HKG:683)确实有债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否让该公司面临风险。
债务会带来什么风险?
债务是帮助企业发展的一种工具,但如果一家企业无法偿还贷款人的债务,那么它就只能听从贷款人的摆布。如果情况真的变得很糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。然而,一种更常见(但仍令人痛苦)的情景是,它不得不以低价筹集新的股本,从而永久性地稀释股东。话虽如此,最常见的情况是一家公司对债务管理得相当好--并对自己有利。在考虑一家公司的债务水平时,第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。
查看我们对嘉里地产的最新分析
嘉里地产的净债务是多少?
你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2022年6月,嘉里地产的债务为601亿港元,比一年前增加了455亿港元。然而,它确实有162亿港元的现金抵消了这一影响,导致净债务约为440亿港元。
联交所:683债转股历史2022年9月22日嘉里地产的负债问题
最新的资产负债表数据显示,嘉里地产有201亿港元的负债在一年内到期,670亿港元的负债在一年内到期。作为抵消,该公司有162亿港元的现金和30.6亿港元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,该公司的负债总额为679亿港元,比其现金和近期应收账款的总和还要多。
这一赤字给这家市值239亿港元的公司蒙上了一层阴影,就像一个庞然大物耸立在凡人之上。因此,毫无疑问,我们会密切关注它的资产负债表。归根结底,如果债权人要求偿还债务,嘉里地产可能需要进行大规模的资本重组。
我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。因此,我们考虑债务相对于收益,包括折旧和摊销费用。
碰巧的是,Kerry Properties的净债务与EBITDA之比相当令人担忧,为6.4倍,但利息覆盖率非常高,为308倍。因此,要么它可以获得非常便宜的长期债务,要么利息支出将会增长!股东们应该知道,嘉里地产去年的息税前利润下降了21%。如果这种盈利趋势持续下去,那么偿还债务就像把猫赶上过山车一样容易。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但最重要的是,未来的收益将决定嘉里地产未来能否保持健康的资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,我们总是检查EBIT中有多少转化为自由现金流。在过去的三年里,嘉里地产产生了相当于息税前利润67%的强劲自由现金流,这与我们预期的差不多。这种冷酷的现金意味着,它可以在想要的时候减少债务。
我们的观点
坦率地说,嘉里地产的息税前利润增长率,以及其控制总负债的过往记录,都让我们对其债务水平感到相当不安。但从好的方面来看,它的利息覆盖是一个好兆头,让我们更加乐观。总体而言,在我们看来,嘉里地产的资产负债表确实对该业务构成了相当大的风险。因此,我们对这种动物的警惕几乎就像饥饿的小猫害怕掉进主人的鱼塘一样:正如他们所说的那样,一次被咬,加倍害羞。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。例如,嘉里地产拥有2个警告标志(还有一点令人担忧)我们认为你应该知道。
如果你有兴趣投资于可以在没有债务负担的情况下增长利润的企业,那么看看这个免费资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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