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Here's Why We're A Bit Worried About Allakos' (NASDAQ:ALLK) Cash Burn Situation
Here's Why We're A Bit Worried About Allakos' (NASDAQ:ALLK) Cash Burn Situation
Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.
So, the natural question for Allakos (NASDAQ:ALLK) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. For the purposes of this article, cash burn is the annual rate at which an unprofitable company spends cash to fund its growth; its negative free cash flow. We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.
View our latest analysis for Allakos
Does Allakos Have A Long Cash Runway?
A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. As at June 2022, Allakos had cash of US$212m and no debt. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$350m. That means it had a cash runway of around 7 months as of June 2022. That's quite a short cash runway, indicating the company must either reduce its annual cash burn or replenish its cash. We should note, however, that if we extrapolate recent trends in its cash burn, then its cash runway would get a lot longer. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.
NasdaqGS:ALLK Debt to Equity History September 20th 2022How Is Allakos' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?
Allakos didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. In fact, it ramped its spending strongly over the last year, increasing cash burn by 101%. It's fair to say that sort of rate of increase cannot be maintained for very long, without putting pressure on the balance sheet. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
How Easily Can Allakos Raise Cash?
Given its cash burn trajectory, Allakos shareholders should already be thinking about how easy it might be for it to raise further cash in the future. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.
Allakos' cash burn of US$350m is about 71% of its US$495m market capitalisation. Given how large that cash burn is, relative to the market value of the entire company, we'd consider it to be a high risk stock, with the real possibility of extreme dilution.
How Risky Is Allakos' Cash Burn Situation?
As you can probably tell by now, we're rather concerned about Allakos' cash burn. Take, for example, its cash burn relative to its market cap, which suggests the company may have difficulty funding itself, in the future. While not as bad as its cash burn relative to its market cap, its cash runway is also a concern, and considering everything mentioned above, we're struggling to find much to be optimistic about. The measures we've considered in this article lead us to believe its cash burn is actually quite concerning, and its weak cash position seems likely to cost shareholders one way or another. On another note, Allakos has 5 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
If you would prefer to check out another company with better fundamentals, then do not miss this free list of interesting companies, that have HIGH return on equity and low debt or this list of stocks which are all forecast to grow.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
仅仅因为一家企业没有赚到钱,并不意味着股票会下跌。例如,虽然软件即服务业务Salesforce.com在经常性收入增长的同时多年来一直亏损,但如果你从2005年开始持有股票,你确实会做得非常好。话虽如此,没有盈利的公司是有风险的,因为它们可能会烧掉所有的现金,陷入困境。
所以,自然的问题是阿拉科斯纳斯达克(Sequoia Capital:ALLK)股东是否应该担心其烧钱的速度。就本文而言,现金消耗是指一家不盈利的公司为其增长提供资金而花费现金的年度比率;其负的自由现金流。我们将首先将其现金消耗与其现金储备进行比较,以计算其现金跑道。
查看我们对阿拉科斯的最新分析
阿拉科斯有很长的现金跑道吗?
一家公司的现金跑道是指以目前的现金消耗率消耗其现金储备所需的时间。截至2022年6月,阿拉科斯的现金为2.12亿美元,没有债务。就去年而言,该公司烧掉了3.5亿美元。这意味着,截至2022年6月,该公司拥有约7个月的现金跑道。这是一条相当短的现金跑道,表明该公司必须要么减少年度现金消耗,要么补充现金。然而,我们应该注意到,如果我们推断出它的现金消耗最近的趋势,那么它的现金跑道将会更长。下图显示了其现金余额在过去几年中的变化情况。
纳斯达克:ALLK债转股历史2022年9月20日阿拉科斯的烧钱是如何随着时间的推移而变化的?
Allakos去年没有录得任何收入,这表明它是一家仍在发展业务的早期公司。因此,虽然我们不能通过销售来理解增长,但我们可以看看现金消耗是如何变化的,以了解支出随着时间的推移是如何趋势的。事实上,它在过去一年里大力增加了支出,使现金消耗增加了101%。公平地说,在不给资产负债表带来压力的情况下,这种增长率不可能保持很长时间。虽然过去总是值得研究的,但最重要的是未来。因此,看看我们的分析师对该公司的预测是很有意义的。
阿拉科斯筹集现金有多容易?
鉴于Allakos的现金消耗轨迹,Allakos的股东们应该已经在考虑,它未来筹集更多现金可能有多容易。一般来说,上市企业可以通过发行股票或承担债务来筹集新的现金。通常情况下,企业会自行发售新股,以筹集现金并推动增长。通过观察一家公司相对于其市值的现金消耗,我们可以洞察到,如果公司需要筹集足够的现金来支付另一年的现金消耗,股东将被稀释多少。
阿拉科斯3.5亿美元的现金消耗约占其4.95亿美元市值的71%。考虑到现金消耗相对于整个公司的市值有多大,我们会认为它是一只高风险股票,真正有可能被稀释。
阿拉科斯烧钱的风险有多大?
正如你现在可能已经知道的那样,我们非常担心阿拉科斯的烧钱行为。以其相对于市值的现金消耗为例,这表明该公司未来可能难以为自己融资。虽然相对于其市值来说,它的现金消耗没有那么糟糕,但它的现金跑道也是一个令人担忧的问题,考虑到上面提到的一切,我们很难找到很多值得乐观的地方。我们在本文中考虑的措施让我们相信,它的现金消耗实际上相当令人担忧,而且它疲软的现金状况似乎可能以某种方式让股东付出代价。另一方面,阿拉科斯已经5个警告标志(和2个令人不快的地方)我们认为你应该知道。
如果你更愿意看看另一家基本面更好的公司,那么不要错过这一预期免费有趣的公司名单,拥有高股本回报率和低债务的公司,或者这些预计都将增长的股票名单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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