One thing we could say about the analysts on MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MCFT) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.

After the downgrade, the consensus from MasterCraft Boat Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of US$603m in 2023, which would reflect a definite 15% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 22% to US$3.91. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$712m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.54 in 2023. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a considerable drop in earnings per share numbers as well.

See our latest analysis for MasterCraft Boat Holdings

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 14% to US$29.80. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MasterCraft Boat Holdings at US$37.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$22.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await MasterCraft Boat Holdings shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 15% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.7% per year. It's pretty clear that MasterCraft Boat Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of MasterCraft Boat Holdings.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MasterCraft Boat Holdings going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.