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Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Central China New Life's (HKG:9983) Robust Earnings
Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Central China New Life's (HKG:9983) Robust Earnings
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Central China New Life Limited's (HKG:9983) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis suggests that this might be because shareholders have noticed some concerning underlying factors.
See our latest analysis for Central China New Life
SEHK:9983 Earnings and Revenue History September 15th 2022Examining Cashflow Against Central China New Life's Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Central China New Life has an accrual ratio of 1.36 for the year to June 2022. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥184m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥649.2m. It's worth noting that Central China New Life generated positive FCF of CN¥532m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Unfortunately (in the short term) Central China New Life saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth CN¥127m. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Central China New Life to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.
Our Take On Central China New Life's Profit Performance
In conclusion, Central China New Life's accrual ratio suggests that its statutory earnings are not backed by cash flow, even though unusual items weighed on profit. Based on these factors, we think it's very unlikely that Central China New Life's statutory profits make it seem much weaker than it is. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Central China New Life at this point in time. For example, Central China New Life has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
Our examination of Central China New Life has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
尽管公布了一些强劲的收益,但市场华中新人寿有限公司(HKG:9983)股票波动不大。我们的分析表明,这可能是因为股东注意到了一些潜在的因素。
查看我们对华中新生活的最新分析
联交所:9983盈利及收入历史2022年9月15日对照华中新人寿盈利考察现金流
正如金融书呆子们已经知道的那样,现金流应计比率是评估一家公司的自由现金流(FCF)与利润匹配程度的关键指标。为了得到应计比率,我们首先从一个时期的利润中减去FCF,然后用这个数字除以该时期的平均运营资产。你可以把来自现金流的应计比率看作是‘非FCF利润率’。
因此,当一家公司的应计比率为负时,它实际上被认为是一件好事,但如果它的应计比率为正,那就是一件坏事。虽然应计比率高于零并不令人担忧,但我们确实认为,当一家公司的应计比率相对较高时,这一点值得注意。这是因为一些学术研究表明,高应计制比率往往会导致较低的利润或较低的利润增长。
华中新人寿截至2022年6月的年度应计比率为1.36。从统计上讲,这对未来的收益是一个真正的负面影响。事实上,在此期间,该公司没有产生任何自由现金流。在过去的一年里,它实际上负面自由现金流为1.84亿元,而前述利润为6.492亿元。值得注意的是,华中新生命一年前产生了5.32亿元的正FCF,所以至少他们过去做到了。话虽如此,故事中还有更多的东西。应计比率反映了不寻常项目对法定利润的影响,至少在一定程度上是这样。
这可能会让你想知道,分析师对未来盈利能力的预测是什么。幸运的是,您可以单击此处查看基于他们估计的未来盈利能力的互动图表。
异常项目对利润的影响
不幸的是(在短期内),华中新人寿的利润减少了价值1.27亿元人民币的不寻常项目。在这种情况下,这是一个非现金费用,它会更容易有较高的现金转换率,所以令人惊讶的是,应计比率讲述了一个不同的故事。看到不寻常的项目让公司损失利润从来都不是件好事,但从好的方面来看,情况可能很快就会改善。我们查看了数千家上市公司,发现不寻常的项目往往是一次性的。考虑到这些项目被认为是不寻常的,这并不令人惊讶。假设这些不寻常的支出不会再次出现,我们因此预计,在其他条件不变的情况下,华中新人寿明年将产生更高的利润。
我们对华中新人寿盈利表现的看法
总而言之,华中新人寿的应计比率表明,其法定收益不受现金流的支持,尽管不寻常的项目拖累了利润。基于这些因素,我们认为华中新人寿的法定利润不太可能让它看起来比实际情况弱得多。因此,尽管盈利质量很重要,但考虑到华中新人寿目前面临的风险也同样重要。例如,华中新生活就有2个警告标志(和1个潜在的严重问题)我们认为您应该知道。
我们对华中新生活的调查集中在某些因素上,这些因素可能会让该公司的收益看起来比实际情况更好。但如果你有能力将注意力集中在细枝末节上,总会有更多的东西需要发现。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率是有利的商业经济指标,而另一些人则喜欢“跟着钱走”,寻找内部人士正在买入的股票。虽然这可能需要为您做一些研究,但您可能会发现免费拥有高股本回报率的公司的集合,或者是内部人士购买的有用的股票清单。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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