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We Think CRRC (SHSE:601766) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think CRRC (SHSE:601766) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, CRRC Corporation Limited (SHSE:601766) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for CRRC
What Is CRRC's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that CRRC had debt of CN¥37.8b at the end of June 2022, a reduction from CN¥45.0b over a year. However, it does have CN¥62.2b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥24.5b.
SHSE:601766 Debt to Equity History September 15th 2022How Strong Is CRRC's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, CRRC had liabilities of CN¥244.1b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥22.1b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥62.2b as well as receivables valued at CN¥152.3b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥51.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since CRRC has a huge market capitalization of CN¥132.9b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, CRRC boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
In fact CRRC's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 34% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine CRRC's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While CRRC has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, CRRC recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 95% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Summing Up
Although CRRC's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥24.5b. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥25b, being 95% of its EBIT. So we are not troubled with CRRC's debt use. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for CRRC you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
伯克希尔哈撒韦的外部基金经理理想汽车·卢直言不讳地说,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。当你考察一家公司的风险有多大时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为当一家企业倒闭时,债务往往会涉及到它。重要的是中国中车有限公司(上海证券交易所:601766)确实背负着债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否让该公司面临风险。
债务在什么时候是危险的?
当一家企业无法轻松履行这些义务时,债务和其他债务就会变得有风险,无论是通过自由现金流还是通过以有吸引力的价格筹集资本。最终,如果公司不能履行其偿还债务的法定义务,股东可能会一无所有地离开。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。然而,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本投资于高回报率增长的企业来说,债务可以成为一个非常好的工具。当我们考虑一家公司的债务用途时,我们首先会把现金和债务放在一起看。
查看我们对中国中车的最新分析
中国中车的净债务是多少?
下面的图片显示,截至2022年6月底,中国中车的债务为378亿元人民币,较一年内的450亿元人民币有所减少。然而,它确实有622亿加元的现金来抵消这一点,导致净现金245亿加元。
上证综指:601766债转股历史2022年9月15日中国中车的资产负债表有多强劲?
根据最近一次报告的资产负债表,中国中车的负债在12个月内到期2441亿元,12个月后到期的负债221亿元。作为对这些债务的抵销,该公司有622亿加元的现金以及价值1523亿加元的应收账款在12个月内到期。因此,该公司的负债总额为人民币516亿元,比现金和近期应收账款加起来还要多。
虽然这看起来可能很多,但并不是很糟糕,因为中国中车拥有1329亿元人民币的巨额市值,因此如果需要的话,它可能会通过筹集资本来加强其资产负债表。但我们肯定希望密切关注其债务带来太大风险的迹象。尽管中国中车的负债值得注意,但它拥有净现金,因此可以说它没有沉重的债务负担!
事实上,中国中车的可取之处在于其较低的债务水平,因为它的息税前利润在过去12个月里暴跌了34%。收益下降(如果这种趋势持续下去)最终可能会使规模不大的债务面临相当大的风险。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解到的债务最多。但最重要的是,未来的收益将决定中国中车未来能否保持健康的资产负债表。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。
但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。虽然中国中车的资产负债表上有净现金,但它将息税前利润(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力仍值得一看,以帮助我们了解它正在以多快的速度建立(或侵蚀)现金余额。在过去三年中,中国中车记录的自由现金流相当于其息税前利润的95%,这比我们通常预期的要强。这使其在偿还债务方面处于非常有利的地位。
总结
尽管中国中车的资产负债表不是特别强劲,但由于总负债,它的净现金为245亿元人民币,这显然是积极的。其自由现金流为250亿元,占其息税前利润的95%,给我们留下了深刻的印象。因此,我们并不担心中国中车的举债问题。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可能包含存在于资产负债表之外的风险。这些风险可能很难发现。每家公司都有它们,我们已经发现中国中车的2个警告标志你应该知道。
归根结底,关注那些没有净债务的公司往往更好。你可以访问我们的这类公司的特别名单(都有利润增长的记录)。这是免费的。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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