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Calculating The Fair Value Of Longshine Technology Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300682)
Calculating The Fair Value Of Longshine Technology Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300682)
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Longshine Technology Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300682) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
See our latest analysis for Longshine Technology Group
The Method
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥450.3m | CN¥683.3m | CN¥870.5m | CN¥1.05b | CN¥1.20b | CN¥1.34b | CN¥1.46b | CN¥1.57b | CN¥1.67b | CN¥1.75b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x3 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 27.39% | Est @ 20.14% | Est @ 15.07% | Est @ 11.52% | Est @ 9.04% | Est @ 7.3% | Est @ 6.08% | Est @ 5.23% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3% | CN¥416 | CN¥583 | CN¥686 | CN¥761 | CN¥809 | CN¥833 | CN¥839 | CN¥832 | CN¥815 | CN¥792 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥7.4b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.3%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.8b× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.3%– 3.2%) = CN¥36b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥36b÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)10= CN¥16b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥24b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥25.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SZSE:300682 Discounted Cash Flow September 11th 2022The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Longshine Technology Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.018. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Longshine Technology Group, we've compiled three additional elements you should further research:
- Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Longshine Technology Group you should be aware of.
- Future Earnings: How does 300682's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
在本文中,我们将通过将预期的未来现金流折现到今天的价值来估计龙光科技集团有限公司(深圳证券交易所代码:300682)的内在价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。像这样的模型可能看起来超出了外行的理解,但它们很容易被效仿。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。
查看我们对龙光科技集团的最新分析
该方法
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来的一美元不如现在的一美元有价值,因此这些未来现金流的总和就会贴现到今天的价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元4.503亿元 | CN人民币6.833亿元 | CN元8.705亿元 | 净额10.5亿元 | CN人民币12.亿元 | CN人民币13.4亿元 | 净额14.6亿元 | CN元15.7亿元 | 人民币16.7亿元 | CN人民币17.5亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x3 | 分析师x3 | Est@27.39% | Est@20.14% | EST@15.07% | Est@11.52% | Est@9.04% | Est@7.3% | Est@6.08% | Est@5.23% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@8.3% | CN元416元 | CN元583元 | CN元686元 | CN元761元 | CN元809元 | CN元833元 | CN元839元 | CN元832元 | CN元815元 | CN元792元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN74亿元
在计算了最初10年内未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终止值,它考虑了第一阶段之后的所有未来现金流。戈登增长公式用于计算终端价值,其未来年增长率等于10年期政府债券收益率3.2%的5年平均水平。我们以8.3%的权益成本将终端现金流贴现到今天的价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元1.8b×(1+3.2%)?(8.3%-3.2%)=CN元36b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元360亿?(1+8.3%)10=CN元160亿元
总价值是未来十年的现金流总和加上贴现的终端价值,得出总权益价值,在本例中为24b元人民币。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。相对于目前25.8元的股价,该公司在撰写本文时的公允价值附近。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
深圳证券交易所:300682贴现现金流2022年9月11日假设
上述计算在很大程度上取决于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流。您不必同意这些输入,我建议您自己重新计算并使用它们。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将朗晖科技集团视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.3%,这是基于杠杆率为1.018的测试值。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
接下来的步骤:
虽然贴现现金流的计算很重要,但它只是一家公司需要评估的众多因素之一。用贴现现金流模型不可能获得万无一失的估值。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。对于朗盛科技集团,我们收集了三个你应该进一步研究的额外元素:
- 风险:例如,我们已经发现了龙光科技集团的2个警示标志你应该意识到。
- 未来收益:300682的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用每天对深交所的每只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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