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Are Investors Undervaluing UFP Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPI) By 39%?
Are Investors Undervaluing UFP Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPI) By 39%?
Does the September share price for UFP Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:UFPI) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for UFP Industries
The Method
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$495.4m | US$446.3m | US$418.0m | US$401.9m | US$393.3m | US$389.8m | US$389.6m | US$391.7m | US$395.5m | US$400.5m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x3 | Est @ -9.9% | Est @ -6.35% | Est @ -3.86% | Est @ -2.12% | Est @ -0.9% | Est @ -0.05% | Est @ 0.55% | Est @ 0.96% | Est @ 1.26% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.6% | US$465 | US$393 | US$345 | US$311 | US$286 | US$265 | US$249 | US$235 | US$222 | US$211 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.0b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$400m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.6%– 1.9%) = US$8.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$8.7b÷ ( 1 + 6.6%)10= US$4.6b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$7.6b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$75.6, the company appears quite good value at a 39% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NasdaqGS:UFPI Discounted Cash Flow September 7th 2022Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at UFP Industries as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.102. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For UFP Industries, there are three pertinent aspects you should look at:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for UFP Industries (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for UFPI's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
纳斯达克公司(UFP Industries,Inc.)9月份的股价反映了它的真实价值吗?今天,我们将通过获取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到其现值来估计股票的内在价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。信不信由你,遵循它并不太难,正如您将从我们的示例中看到的那样!
不过请记住,有很多方法可以评估一家公司的价值,贴现现金流只是其中一种方法。任何有兴趣了解更多内在价值的人,都应该阅读一下Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对UFP行业的最新分析
该方法
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。在第一阶段,我们需要估计未来十年为企业带来的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们会根据上次估计或报告的价值推断先前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
贴现现金流就是这样一种想法,即未来的一美元不如现在的一美元,所以我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现到以今天的美元计算的估计价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)预测
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆式FCF(百万美元) | 4.954亿美元 | 4.463亿美元 | 4.18亿美元 | 4.019亿美元 | 3.933亿美元 | 3.898亿美元 | 3.896亿美元 | 3.917亿美元 | 3.955亿美元 | 4.05亿美元 |
增长率预估来源 | 分析师x3 | Est@-9.9% | Est@-6.35% | Est@-3.86% | Est@-2.12% | Est@-0.9% | Est@-0.05% | Est@0.55% | Est@0.96% | Est@1.26% |
现值(美元,百万)贴现@6.6% | 465美元 | 393美元 | 345美元 | 311美元 | 286美元 | 265美元 | 249美元 | 235美元 | 222美元 | 211美元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=30亿美元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(1.9%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用6.6%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=4亿美元×(1+1.9%)?(6.6%-1.9%)=87亿美元
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=87亿美元?(1+6.6%)10=46亿美元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为76亿美元。最后一步是将股权价值除以流通股数量。与目前75.6美元的股价相比,该公司的价值似乎相当不错,较目前的股价有39%的折让。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
NasdaqGS:UFPI贴现现金流2022年9月7日重要假设
我们要指出,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。如果你不同意这些结果,你可以自己试一试计算,并玩弄一下假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将UFP Industries视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了6.6%,这是基于杠杆率为1.102的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
尽管一家公司的估值很重要,但理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一一项分析。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。股价低于内在价值的原因是什么?对于UFP Industries,您应该关注三个相关方面:
- 风险例如,我们发现UFP行业的2个警示标志(1有点令人不快!)在这里投资之前你应该意识到这一点。
- 管理:内部人士是否一直在增持股票,以利用市场对UFPI未来前景的情绪?查看我们的管理层和董事会分析,了解对CEO薪酬和治理因素的见解。
- 其他稳固的企业:低债务、高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是强劲业务的基础。为什么不探索我们具有坚实商业基本面的股票的互动列表,看看是否有其他您可能没有考虑过的公司!
PS.Simply Wall St.应用程序每天对纳斯达克指数的每一只股票进行现金流贴现估值。如果你想找到其他股票的计算方法,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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