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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Anhui Quanchai Engine Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600218)
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Anhui Quanchai Engine Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600218)
Does the September share price for Anhui Quanchai Engine Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600218) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Check out our latest analysis for Anhui Quanchai Engine
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥181.6m | CN¥186.2m | CN¥191.4m | CN¥196.9m | CN¥202.9m | CN¥209.1m | CN¥215.7m | CN¥222.5m | CN¥229.6m | CN¥236.9m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 2.28% | Est @ 2.57% | Est @ 2.77% | Est @ 2.91% | Est @ 3.01% | Est @ 3.08% | Est @ 3.13% | Est @ 3.16% | Est @ 3.18% | Est @ 3.2% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1% | CN¥168 | CN¥159 | CN¥151 | CN¥144 | CN¥137 | CN¥131 | CN¥125 | CN¥119 | CN¥114 | CN¥108 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.4b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.1%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥237m× (1 + 3.2%) ÷ (8.1%– 3.2%) = CN¥5.0b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥5.0b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)10= CN¥2.3b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥3.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥9.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
SHSE:600218 Discounted Cash Flow September 4th 2022The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Anhui Quanchai Engine as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.989. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Anhui Quanchai Engine, we've put together three additional items you should explore:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Anhui Quanchai Engine , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
安徽泉柴发动机股份有限公司(上海证券交易所代码:600218)9月份的股价反映了它的真实价值吗?今天,我们将通过估计公司未来的现金流并将其贴现到现值来估计股票的内在价值。贴现现金流(DCF)模型是我们将应用的工具。不要被行话吓跑了,它背后的数学实际上是相当简单的。
我们通常认为,一家公司的价值是它未来将产生的所有现金的现值。然而,贴现现金流只是众多估值指标中的一个,它也并非没有缺陷。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。
查看我们对安徽泉柴发动机的最新分析
一步一步地计算
我们使用的是两阶段增长模型,也就是说,我们考虑了公司发展的两个阶段。在初期,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被假设为有一个稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须对未来十年的现金流进行估计。由于没有分析师对自由现金流的估计,我们根据公司最近报告的价值推断出了之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设,自由现金流萎缩的公司将减缓收缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在这段时间内的增长速度将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映出,增长在最初几年往往比后来几年放缓得更多。
一般来说,我们假设今天的一美元比未来的一美元更有价值,所以我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现到以今天美元计算的估计价值:
10年自由现金流(FCF)估计
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
杠杆FCF(CN元,百万元) | CN元1.816亿元 | CN元1.862亿元 | CN元1.914亿元 | CN元1.969亿元 | CN元2.029亿元 | CN元2.091亿元 | 净额2.157亿元 | CN元2.225亿元 | CN元2.296亿元 | CN元2.369亿元 |
增长率预估来源 | Est@2.28% | Est@2.57% | Est@2.77% | Est@2.91% | Est@3.01% | Est@3.08% | Est@3.13% | Est@3.16% | Est@3.18% | Est@3.2% |
现值(CN元,百万)贴现@8.1% | CN元168元 | CN元159元 | CN元151元 | CN元144元 | CN元137元 | CN元131元 | CN元125元 | CN元119元 | CN元114元 | CN元108元 |
(“EST”=Simply Wall St.预估的FCF成长率)
10年期现金流现值(PVCF)=CN人民币14亿元
我们现在需要计算终端价值,它说明了这十年之后的所有未来现金流。出于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的国内生产总值增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(3.2%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用8.1%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现至当前价值。
终端值(TV)=FCF2032×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元2.37M×(1+3.2%)?(8.1%-3.2%)=CN元5.0b
终值现值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元5.0亿?(1+8.1%)10=CN人民币23亿元
那么,总价值或股权价值就是未来现金流的现值之和,在这种情况下,现金流为36亿加元。在最后一步,我们用股本价值除以流通股的数量。相对于目前9.7元的股价,该公司在撰写本文时的公允价值附近。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
上交所:2022年9月4日600218贴现现金流假设
现在,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将安徽泉柴发动机视为潜在股东,折现率使用股权成本,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了8.1%,这是基于杠杆率为0.989的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
就构建你的投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,理想情况下,它不会是你为一家公司仔细审查的唯一分析。贴现现金流模型并不是一个完美的股票估值工具。你最好应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率大幅变化,产出可能看起来非常不同。对于安徽泉柴发动机,我们为您准备了另外三个您应该探索的项目:
- 风险例如,考虑一下一直存在的投资风险幽灵。我们已经确定了5个警告信号与安徽泉柴发动机合作,了解这些应该是你投资过程的一部分。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
- 其他顶级分析师选择:有兴趣看看分析师们在想什么吗?看看我们的交互式分析师首选股票列表,看看他们认为哪些股票可能具有诱人的未来前景!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其针对每只中国股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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