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A Look At The Fair Value Of AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited (HKG:2357)
A Look At The Fair Value Of AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited (HKG:2357)
Does the August share price for AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited (HKG:2357) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for AviChina Industry & Technology
The Method
We have to calculate the value of AviChina Industry & Technology slightly differently to other stocks because it is a aerospace & defense company. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.5%. Compared to the current share price of HK$3.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)
= CN¥0.1 / (5.5% – 1.6%)
= HK$3.3
SEHK:2357 Discounted Cash Flow August 30th 2022Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at AviChina Industry & Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.808. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For AviChina Industry & Technology, we've put together three essential aspects you should explore:
- Financial Health: Does 2357 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does 2357's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
AviChina Industrial&Technology Company Limited(HKG:2357)8月份的股价是否反映了它的真实价值?今天,我们将通过获取预期的未来现金流并将其贴现到其现值来估计股票的内在价值。实现这一点的一种方法是使用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。这听起来可能很复杂,但实际上很简单!
不过请记住,有很多方法可以评估一家公司的价值,贴现现金流只是其中一种方法。如果你对这类估值还有一些亟待解决的问题,不妨看看Simply Wall St.的分析模型。
查看我们对AviChina行业和技术的最新分析
该方法
我们必须计算AviChina Industry&Technology的价值,因为它是一家航空航天和国防公司,因此与其他股票的计算略有不同。它不使用自由现金流,而是使用每股股息(DPS)支付。自由现金流很难估计,该行业的分析师往往不会报告自由现金流。除非一家公司支付其FCF的大部分作为股息,否则这种方法通常会低估股票的价值。我们使用戈登增长模型,该模型假设股息将以可持续的速度增长为永久股息。由于一些原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一家公司的国内生产总值(GDP)。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(1.6%)。然后,预期每股股息以5.5%的股本成本折现为今天的价值。与目前3.9港元的股价相比,该公司在撰写本文时似乎接近公允价值。不过,请记住,这只是一个大致的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样--垃圾输入,垃圾输出。
每股价值=预期每股股息/(折现率-永久增长率)
=CN元0.1元/(5.5%-1.6%)
=港币3.3元
联交所:2,357贴现现金流2022年8月30日重要假设
现在,贴现现金流最重要的投入是贴现率,当然还有实际现金流。投资的一部分是你自己对一家公司未来业绩的评估,所以你自己试一试计算,检查你自己的假设。DCF也没有考虑一个行业可能的周期性,也没有考虑一家公司未来的资本要求,因此它没有给出一家公司潜在业绩的全貌。鉴于我们将AviChina Industry&Technology视为潜在股东,股权成本被用作贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在这个计算中,我们使用了5.5%,这是基于杠杆率为0.808的测试版。贝塔系数是衡量一只股票相对于整个市场的波动性的指标。我们的贝塔系数来自全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔系数,强制限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是一个稳定业务的合理范围。
展望未来:
就构建你的投资论点而言,估值只是硬币的一面,它只是你需要为一家公司评估的众多因素之一。贴现现金流模型并不是投资估值的全部。相反,它应该被视为“什么假设需要成立才能让这只股票被低估或高估”的指南。例如,公司权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。对于AviChina Industry&Technology,我们总结了你应该探索的三个基本方面:
- 财务状况:2357是否拥有健康的资产负债表?看看我们的自由资产负债表分析,对杠杆和风险等关键因素进行了六项简单的检查。
- 未来收益:2357的增长率与同行和更广泛的市场相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表互动,更深入地挖掘分析师对未来几年的共识数字。
- 其他高质量替代产品:你喜欢一个好的全能运动员吗?浏览我们的高质量股票互动列表,了解您可能会错过的其他股票!
PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新每只香港股票的贴现现金流计算,所以如果你想找出任何其他股票的内在价值,只需搜索此处。
对这篇文章有什么反馈吗?担心内容吗? 保持联系直接与我们联系。或者,也可以给编辑组发电子邮件,地址是implywallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。
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风险及免责提示
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融信息和交易应用程序。
在美国,moomoo上的投资产品和服务由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美国证券交易委员会(SEC)监管的持牌主体。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融业监管局(FINRA)和证券投资者保护公司(SIPC)的成员。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,该公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)监管(牌照号码︰CMS101000) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMS) ,持有财务顾问豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)资质。本内容未经新加坡金融管理局的审查。
在澳大利亚,moomoo上的金融产品和服务是通过Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,该公司是受澳大利亚证券和投资委员会(ASIC)监管的澳大利亚金融服务许可机构(AFSL No. 224663)。请阅读并理解我们的《金融服务指南》、《条款与条件》、《隐私政策》和其他披露文件,这些文件可在我们的网站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中获取。
在加拿大,通过moomoo应用提供的仅限订单执行的券商服务由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,并受加拿大投资监管机构(CIRO)监管。
在马来西亚,moomoo上的投资产品和服务是通过Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,该公司受马来西亚证券监督委员会(SC)监管(牌照号码︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有资本市场服务牌照 (CMSL) 。本内容未经马来西亚证券监督委员会的审查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd., Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.,和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.是关联公司。
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